Nate Silver predicts Trump's Electoral College victory despite 'subpar' Harris polling.

According to Nate Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, former President Trump is now predicted to win the November election against Kamala Harris by the largest margin in several months.

Silver published his latest election forecast on Substack, stating that while the outcome is still uncertain, Trump's chances of victory have increased since July 30.

Since last Thursday, Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have risen from 52.4% to 58.2%, while Harris' odds have fallen from 47.3% to 41.6%, according to Silver's intricate election forecast model.

He observed that Harris did not gain as much from a DNC bounce as election models had predicted.

Silver wrote that there is room for debate regarding the convention bounce, but Harris has been receiving a series of mediocre state polls recently.

Last week, Silver predicted that Harris would face a "slight underdog" status in Pennsylvania, where the state's 19 electoral votes could significantly impact the election's outcome.

On Wednesday, the polling expert revealed that Michigan could pose a challenge for the Harris campaign, as the candidate's numbers in the state have been lackluster for weeks.

In the battleground state with 15 electoral votes, polling shows Harris leading by a slight margin. Silver advises the Harris campaign to be cautious due to the narrow advantage.

""Harris's polling average in MI has decreased from +3.1 to +1.9 since the DNC, which has negatively impacted her overall performance in the model," Silver posted on X."

Kamala Harris's polling averages are lower than what we've seen in recent polls on Substack.

Silver believes that Harris' decision to bypass Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro as her running mate could negatively impact her campaign.

After Biden dropped out, there was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris, but it might have happened regardless. Although her convention speech was good, bypassing Shapiro is starting to look bad, and they haven't found a second gear since Hot Brat Summer.

Silver predicted that Harris has a slight edge in winning the presidential election if it were held last month, but warned the public not to rely too heavily on polls, as they have a history of being inaccurate when it comes to former President Trump.

"Silver stated that if the election was tomorrow, he believed Harris would have a slight edge in the polls. He pointed out that in recent polling, Harris had been leading in several key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, all of which were within the margin of error range."

"He emphasized the importance of remembering two things: firstly, there are three more months left, and secondly, the polls have been incorrect before, particularly in the last two general elections where they underestimated Trump."