In his latest forecast, polling expert Nate Silver predicts that Trump has a 64% chance of winning the electoral college.

On Sunday, Nate Silver and his election prediction model updated their forecast, giving Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college. This update came after a NYT-Siena College poll showed Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 1 percentage point.

Despite leading in several national and swing state polls, a recent NYT/Siena College poll shows that there has been a "shift in momentum" in the race, according to Silver.

A poll by the NYT/Siena College found that more voters believed Harris was "too liberal or progressive" on important policy matters than those who thought Trump was "too conservative."

Silver's national polling average shows that Trump leads Harris by 2.5 points, but Harris only has a 36% chance of winning the electoral college according to his model.

This morning, a new New York Times/Siena College poll showed Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup and 2 points when minor candidates were included. This poll, conducted by one of our highest-rated pollsters, reduced Harris's lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, putting her in a precarious position in the Electoral College, according to Silver's update at 11 a.m. on Sunday.

Since the end of August, Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have risen from 52.4% to 58.2%, while Harris' odds have fallen from 47.3% to 41.6%.

If Harris excelled in the debate, the NYT poll may not hold significance.

If Harris performs well in the debate on Tuesday, the Times poll won't matter as much, and we'll provide a longer update on the race later today.

On Wednesday, Silver stated that Michigan and Pennsylvania, crucial swing states, could present challenges for her.

Our polling averages in PA and MI have changed since the pre-DNC period. In PA, Harris's lead has decreased from +1.8 to +1.0, while in MI, Harris's lead has fallen from +3.1 to +1.9. These changes occurred before any convention bounce adjustment, which will be implemented at a later stage of the model.

On Sunday, Silver highlighted several crucial aspects of the NYT poll, particularly the 47% of voters who view Harris as too liberal.

Silver wrote that he was unsure how Harris could spin her way out of the perception that a high percentage of voters didn't know what she stood for, indicating there was room for improvement in those numbers.

Silver wrote that Harris missed a chance to show her center-leaning stance by choosing Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro, as a small group of progressives opposed Shapiro. Although Walz was a good choice on his own, Silver believes that Harris' decision to stick with her 2019 approach was a missed opportunity to signal the direction of her presidency.