If Trump surpasses current polling by just one point, he will secure the White House, predicts CNN's data expert.
On Friday, CNN's Harry Enten stated that the current race is thrilling, with any minor shift having a significant impact.
If Trump outperforms current polling by one point, he will win the White House, according to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten.
Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Friday that the current campaign is the closest in a generation where a single point could determine the outcome.
No presidential race has been as close in 60 years as the one currently taking place, according to national polling averages from 1964 to 2020, which show that each election has had at least a three-week period where one candidate was polling five points better than the other.
So far in this campaign, that three-week lead has yet to materialize.
"The race has been consistently tight in a way that we have never seen before, Mr. Berman," Enten said.
The race between Trump and Harris is tight in battleground states, with Harris leading by an average of six-tenths of a point, according to the network's aggregate polling. This is closer than the final nine-tenths of a point lead President Biden had over Trump among those states in the last election.
The seven battleground states will determine this election, as the race is so close that it is within the margin of error, Mr. Berman said.
If the November election results perfectly matched today's polling, Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 246.
If Trump outperformed current polling by "one percentage point," Enten's simulation showed him winning.
If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes, compared to Harris' 251 votes in this scenario.
"Any slight movement can make all the difference in this truly exciting race," John concluded.
Last week, journalist Mark Halperin pointed out that the narrow gap between the Harris and Trump campaigns in swing states could still be within the margin of error, making it uncertain if Harris is truly ahead.
Halperin stated that the numbers are a "scary place" for Harris to be in just a couple of months ahead of the November election, especially if Trump gains momentum.
Trump could be ahead in all the Sun Belt states by the middle of September, as predicted by him.
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