If Shapiro had been chosen, would Harris have maintained her lead in Pennsylvania?

According to electoral and polling analysis, Pennsylvania could be the "tipping point" in the 2024 presidential election. As the race tightens, CNN wondered whether Vice President Kamala Harris' decision to choose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro might impact her performance in the state.

The outcome of the race is crucial in Pennsylvania, where the race is tightening. Shapiro has a 59% approval rating in the state, making him a significant factor in the election.

"If Kamala Harris loses in Pennsylvania, which is a tipping point state, and the state that put Donald Trump over the top in the electoral college, there will be questions about whether she should have chosen Josh Shapiro instead of Tim Walz. It is unclear whether she could have won if she had chosen Shapiro instead of Walz. With the Pennsylvania polls getting tighter, this is a question that is being asked at this moment."

Enten highlighted polls from a month ago to now, showing a narrowing gap between Harris and her opponents in Pennsylvania.

A month ago, the polls showed New York Times +4 Harris, +3 Quinnipiac for Harris, Franklin & Marshall +3 for Harris. However, recent polls have shown a much tighter race, with a tie in the CBS/YouGov poll and the CNN SSRS poll.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he will have 287 electoral votes, surpassing Harris' 251.

"He stated that the data was part of an emerging pattern that was in a pivotal state. Although there was a small Harris lead, it was within the margin of error and had become a race that was too close to call."