The Nebraska district's decision could determine the outcome of the presidential election.

In 2016, former President Donald Trump won NE-2, but President Biden won the district in 2020.

The Nebraska district's decision could determine the outcome of the presidential election.
The Nebraska district's decision could determine the outcome of the presidential election.

This year's presidential election outcome could be determined by a single congressional district in Nebraska.

According to Jimmy Keady, president of JLK Political Strategies, a national Republican consulting firm, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District could determine the ultimate victor.

Nebraska's unique Electoral College voting system, which awards one vote per district and two votes to the statewide winner, could make that district a significant factor in determining the next president.

Nebraska's longtime solidly red disposition has made it a rarely discussed location in presidential politics, despite its critical swing state status.

Kamala Harris closeup shot from campaign event
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on Sept. 2, 2024 in Pittsburgh. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

The 2nd Congressional District has a history of swinging between Democratic and Republican victories. In 2020, President Biden won the district and its one electoral vote, while in 2016, former President Donald Trump emerged victorious. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, won the district in 2012, but former President Barack Obama captured the electoral vote in 2008.

In a year where the presidential race is as close as ever, the lone vote of the Second Congressional District could determine the outcome.

former President Trump giving thumbs up
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures as he departs a campaign event at Central Wisconsin Airport on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Keady advised Republicans to prioritize securing the seat in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which could give them the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win the election.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the "Blue Wall" swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while former President Donald Trump wins all the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and a swing district in Maine, the Electoral College vote will be 269-268 for Harris.

If Harris wins the district, she will have the 270 votes needed for an election victory, but if Trump takes the district, it will result in a 269-269 tie and send the election to the House of Representatives.

The Cook Political Report assigns the district, one of only seven in the country, a Partisan Voting Index Score of "EVEN," indicating that it typically votes in line with the national electorate.

electoral map colored in red for Trump, blue for Harris
This map shows a hypothetical situation in which Nebraska's Second Congressional District holds the key to who wins the election. (270 To Win)

That fact will not be lost on Republicans, Keady argued.

""If the Democrats continue to support a nominee who has not won any national votes, the Republicans can use this opportunity to win the seat for President Trump by focusing on kitchen table issues such as the economy, illegal immigration, and public safety," Keady stated."

by Michael Lee

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