Dem strategist warns of potential challenges for Harris based on current polls.
Surveys were unable to accurately forecast the narrow margins of the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Despite her new lead in the polls, some experts remain unconvinced about Vice President Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the Democratic ticket.
According to Democrat strategist Julian Epstein, if the polling errors are similar to those in 2016 and 2020, Trump is currently leading.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Biden now leads Trump by 1.5 points nationally, a significant change from the previous day when Trump had a 3-point lead over Biden.
The Harris lead is smaller than the gap Trump faced in 2016 and 2020, when he trailed Clinton and Biden by 6 and 7.1 points, respectively.
Despite losing the 2020 election, Trump outperformed his polling numbers in both elections, which Democrats are taking note of as they prepare for the 2024 race.
A Politico report from last week reveals that while recent polls conducted by Democratic firms show Harris leading, they also contain warning signs, such as Trump's leads in characteristics that may sway voters. Additionally, the polls indicate that Harris is essentially tied with Trump in battleground states, meaning she is underperforming her national numbers in states that will determine the election's outcome.
Margie Omero, a partner at GBAO Strategies, stated to Politico that the race is still tough, which aligns with everything they know.
Despite the efforts of several top polling firms to diagnose the problem after 2020, democratic pollsters still fear the possibility of another polling error.
"Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group who took part in the Democratic "polling autopsy," told Politico that he spent a lot of time and analysis trying to understand the problems. Although he feels more educated about the issues, he believes no pollster in America can claim to have completely resolved the problems."
Democratic pollsters have advised caution despite Harris' rapid rise in recent weeks.
"Each year, we've encountered various unexpected events. This industry is challenging," John Anzalone, the lead pollster for Biden's 2020 campaign, stated to Politico. "Something will occur in 2024, and we, at present, are unaware of what that will be."
Harris is not performing well in the Rust Belt battleground, particularly among working class voters and Black voters, according to Epstein.
Epstein stated that the strategy of not specifying policy or appearing before the news media, which he believes is born out of arrogance and recklessness, will ultimately fail.
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