Allan Lichtman predicts Harris as 2024 winner because "Democrats got smart" and did this.
An American University historian who accurately foresaw Trump's 2016 victory now predicts Harris will emerge triumphant.
The historian who accurately predicted the outcomes of the last ten presidential elections believes that the Democrats' victory in November is due to their choice of Kamala Harris as their candidate, as she is the first woman of color to hold the office.
Since 1984, Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted nearly every presidential race using his "Keys to the White House," which he developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The "keys" consist of 13 true or false questions that, if answered correctly, indicate stability.
"According to Lichtman, if six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Otherwise, they're predicted winners. This method also led to a prediction of Donald Trump's win, which made Lichtman virtually alone in making that prediction in 2016."
According to Lichtman, if the Democrats represented by Harris lose five keys "at most," they will have a precedent-breaking election and Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.
"Lichtman stated that the recent situation of a sitting president dropping out on the eve of the convention has affected his keys. With Biden dropping out, the Democrats lost one key - the incumbency key. Lichtman believed that if Biden dropped out, the Democrats would have a big party brawl and lose a second key, which could cost them the election. However, the Democrats united behind Harris, preserving the contest key. As a result, the shift only cost them one key."
The incumbent party has no serious competition for the nomination, according to Lichtman. The other keys include party mandate, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
"Lichtman stated that having Harris as the focal point instead of Biden, the policy maker, has decreased excitement for protests that helped maintain social unrest, which ultimately led to a predicted victory for Kamala Harris."
Planet Chronicle’ Chris Pandolfo contributed to this report.
politics
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