Pollster Nate Silver believes his instincts indicate that Trump will win the election.

Last month, Pollster Nate Silver stated that he would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris on November 5, but his "gut" is indicating that former President Trump will win.

Silver set the scene in his new opinion piece by stating that several battleground states have Trump and Harris in a close race. However, these numbers do not seem to satisfy observers, who frequently request a clear answer from him.

"In The New York Times on Wednesday, Silver stated, "I'll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump, and I believe it's true for many anxious Democrats.""

Trump's supporters may not be adequately reached by pollsters, according to him, which he believes influences his intuition.

Solving nonresponse bias can be a challenging issue, as response rates to even the most effective telephone polls are typically in the single digits. This suggests that the individuals who respond to polls are unusual. Trump supporters, who often exhibit lower civic engagement and social trust, may be less likely to complete a survey from a news organization.

"With growing intensity, pollsters employ data-manipulation techniques to adjust for the issue of low response rates among certain voter groups, such as college-educated individuals who are more likely to participate in surveys. However, there is no assurance that these methods will be successful."

Silver suggests a way for Harris to "beat the polls" and not leave Democrats without hope.

"A polling surprise that underestimates Ms. Harris isn't necessarily less likely than one for Mr. Trump," he wrote. "On average, polls miss by three or four points. If Ms. Harris does that, she will win by the largest margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College since Mr. Obama in 2008."

Silver recently pointed out data that seemed "unfavorable" for Harris.

"According to Silver on Substack, three recent high-quality national polls show Trump leading, which is challenging for Harris given the Democrats' Electoral College disadvantage. Despite this, her edge in the national polling average has decreased to 1.7 points. National polls have limited impact on the model, and the race remains a toss-up. However, it's not difficult to imagine reasons why Trump could win."

Trump is currently leading Harris in the presidential race, according to a recent Planet Chronicle Poll and a TIPP tracking poll, with Trump having a 2-point lead, 49% to 47%.

James Carville, a democratic strategist, stated that he is "certain" the election results will be different.

On Wednesday, in a New York Times column, he wrote that he was certain that Ms. Harris would be elected the next president of the United States and that America would be okay.

In his Times piece, Silver acknowledged that pollsters could be wrong and the outcome may not be a photo finish. He pointed out that with polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one seen in 2016 or 2020 could result in a comfortable Electoral College victory for either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump.