Nate Silver unveils his first election model since Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, hints at a potential trend.

Nate Silver released his first election model since Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday.

Although Harris is predicted to win the popular vote, she faces a slim chance of defeating Trump in the Electoral College, potentially repeating the popular vote-Electoral College split that occurred in 2000 and 2016, according to Silver's Substack article.

Silver stated that Biden had a 27% chance of defeating Trump prior to his withdrawal from the race, and Harris is currently in a more advantageous position than Biden was when he was the incumbent contender.

In two days after Biden's July 21 announcement, Harris rapidly gathered support from the Democratic Party.

"Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance," Silver wrote.

In fact, she's a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000. If an election were held today, we'd enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) has been close since Biden dropped out of the race and because there's some intrinsic uncertainty about where the race stands given how much news there's been lately.

Despite winning the popular vote in the 2020 election, Biden's victory was narrow in several states, resulting in a significant "Electoral College-popular vote gap."

"This remains a problem for Democrats, as we reveal a narrower popular vote-Electoral College gap for Harris compared to Biden's forecast," he stated.

Silver accurately predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and also foresaw President Barack Obama's victory in 2012.

By Tuesday, it is reported that Harris will choose her running mate, who is now presumptively the party's presidential nominee.

Several politicians on her list, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, have been campaigning for the vice president in recent days.

Planet Chronicle' Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.