Nate Silver, a renowned polling expert, has stated that the latest polling indicates a negative outlook for Vice President Kamala Harris, as President Donald Trump continues to regain momentum on a national scale.
Trump's momentum in national polling is predicted by Silver's intricate election forecast model.
Nate Silver, a well-known elections analyst and statistician, stated on Sunday that former President Trump seems to be gaining ground in the lead-up to the election, according to his latest forecast. Silver considered the recent data to be unfavorable for Vice President Kamala Harris.
"According to Silver on Substack, the data remains negative for Kamala Harris as three recent high-quality national polls show Donald Trump leading. Despite Democrats' Electoral College disadvantage, Harris' edge in national polling average has decreased to 1.7 points. National polls have limited impact on the model, and the race remains a toss-up. However, it's not difficult to imagine reasons why Trump could win."
According to Silver, a recent Planet Chronicle Poll shows Trump leading Harris in the presidential race 50%-48%, while the TIPP tracking poll shows Trump ahead of Harris by a two-point lead, 49% to 47%.
Silver's election forecast model indicates that Harris maintains a slim lead over Trump nationally, with the vice president at 48.9% and the president at 47.2%, as of Sunday afternoon. However, Trump, who was ranked 46.5% in Silver's model last Sunday, appears to be closing the gap.
Silver wrote on X that as some Trump leads emerge in high-quality national polls, it's not a positive sign for Harris, who is in a very close race.
The data guru, who previously announced his support for Harris, shared his thoughts on Trump's potential victory in a newsletter titled "24 Reasons Trump Could Win."
Despite being the favorite to win the popular vote, the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by 2 percentage points, making it difficult for Democrats to overcome in an era of intense partisanship and close elections.
Other explanations for his low approval rating include inflation, higher prices under the Biden administration, immigration, decreasing trust in the media, and Harris' history of policy decisions.
"Another potential factor contributing to the shifting cultural vibes is the ongoing consequences of 2020's excesses, including COVID, crime, and the 'wokeness' movement," he explains.
In 2019, Harris ran far to her left, adopting many unpopular positions, and lacks a viable strategy for explaining her shifting stances.
"Harris has been relying on instincts and hasn't presented a clear vision for the country. If the "fundamentals" were in her favor, it could have been a successful strategy, but they aren't."
In the latest Planet Chronicle polling, Harris leads by 6 points among voters in seven key battleground states, while the candidates are tied at 49% each in counties where the Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points. However, Trump's advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64%-35%) than Harris has in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%).
Could Democrats win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote, as happened in 2000 and 2016 when the GOP candidate lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College?
Planet Chronicle' Dana Blanton contributed to this report.
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