Control of the House in November: Five races that could tip the balance of power

With the presidential race intensifying and Election Day approaching, candidates in smaller-scale races across the country are also rushing to the finish line in November.

The 435 races that will determine the House of Representatives' control next year.

"Veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye expressed optimism for Republicans in the upcoming presidential race, stating that the close contest in swing states would make it difficult to predict the outcome of the race."

Vice President Kamala Harris's takeover of the presidency from Biden has renewed political enthusiasm among Democratic strategist Joel Rubin, who is confident in his party's redistricting wins.

"Rubin believes that 18 to 20 of the 35, 40 swing districts will go to Biden, making the map look promising. He also notes that Democratic enthusiasm has increased significantly since a month ago and believes that Democrats can take back the House with these gains."

With narrowing margins in the House, control may depend on a few crucial races, as highlighted by Planet Chronicle Digital in the five races below.

NY-17

In the New York suburbs just north of the Big Apple, former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones is being challenged by Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., in a district that Biden won in 2020. Democrats see an opportunity to regain the seat.

Both Jones and Lawler have attempted to depict each other as extremists by associating their opponent with the least favored political views within their respective parties.

In the 118th Congress, Lawler has been recognized as one of the most bipartisan legislators.

Jones has shifted his stance closer to the center and even endorsed the primary opponent of a former progressive anti-Israel colleague, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, which angered some House Democrats.

Rubin stated that the potential pickup for Democrats against a moderate, well-regarded Republican in a district that had been blue is an important one. However, there are seats that Democrats lost in New York two years ago that should not have been lost, which made the difference between minority and majority.

Heye stated, "I am backing Lawler for the district as he is a suitable candidate. However, I believe there are still some divisions among Democrats."

VA-07

In the upcoming election, both Republicans and Democrats are eyeing a district in Virginia's Washington, D.C., suburbs as a potential victory for a candidate who is vacating their seat to run for governor.

Eugene Vindman, the brother of Alexander Vindman, who testified in the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, is the Democrat running for office.

An attorney and former Special Forces Green Beret, Derrick Anderson, represents the GOP side.

In 2017, Spanberger defeated a Tea Party Republican to win the seat, and the GOP is now aiming to regain control of it.

Heye stated that if he were to design a prototype Democrat to run in a swing district, Spanberger would be the ideal candidate. However, since she is not running again, it poses a challenge for Democrats. Heye also mentioned that outside groups are investing money in that race.

Vindman and Spanberger were both relevant to the national security space, and Rubin defended Vindman, highlighting their unique experiences.

He believes this is an opportunity to expand the Spanberger brand.

MI-08

At the end of this year, another competitive seat will be vacated by Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich.

Despite Biden's narrow 2% victory over Trump in 2020, the central Michigan district has become more conservative in recent years, according to Bridge Michigan.

The contest is between Democratic State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet and former Trump administration official Paul Junge.

The open seats in Virginia have become a liability for Democrats in their efforts to take back the House, according to Heye.

MD-06

In a majority-blue state, Maryland's 6th congressional district presents the best chance for Republicans to gain a seat, as Democratic Rep. David Trone is stepping down at the end of the year.

John Delaney's wife, April Delaney, is running for the seat against Neil Parrott, a former Republican state delegate.

Although the district leans blue, a Washington Post story on the race highlighted that it also has 141,000 unaffiliated voters who could sway the outcome.

Delaney's bid for Senate received Rubin's support, but he acknowledged that the presence of popular former governor Larry Hogan on the ballot could motivate more moderate voters to choose the Republican party in state congressional races.

AK-At Large

Heye expressed his growing confidence in the Republicans' chances of winning the lone congressional seat in Alaska, which will be determined through ranked-choice voting.

"In Alaska, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola could win, but she'll need to massively outperform, according to a GOP strategist. Two weeks ago, the strategist believed Republicans were split and ranked-choice voting would favor Democrats. However, that framework no longer applies."

The general election was intended to be a three-way contest between Peltola, Republican Nick Begich, and Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.

Recently, Republicans have united, with House GOP leadership supporting Begich and Dahlstrom withdrawing from the race.

In the state that voted for Trump by roughly 10 points over Biden in 2020, Peltola, a moderate Democrat, is generally well-liked. The close race in the state is expected due to these dynamics.