What do the numbers indicate about when Trump could be the GOP nominee?

Donald Trump continues to dominate in the Republican primary.

Over the past four weeks, polls by NBC News, CNN, and Quinnipiac University showed that the former president received an average of 75% support from national GOP voters.

In the same polls, Nikki Haley, his opponent, received support from an average of 20% of Republican voters.

The race isn't over until a candidate earns at least 1,215 delegates.

Haley assured voters that she will remain in the race until at least Super Tuesday.

To make the race competitive, the former South Carolina governor must have a strong showing in her home state this weekend and then win several more states before late March.

It is possible that Trump could secure the majority of delegates by late March, making him the presumptive nominee.

The state of play

Trump currently has 63 delegates, Haley has 17.

After the former president's victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and the Virgin Islands, the four primaries or caucuses that have occurred thus far.

Despite not winning any contests, Haley came close to winning in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Both states distribute delegates based on vote share, meaning that the number of delegates a candidate receives corresponds to their percentage of the vote.

The road to Super Tuesday

Before Super Tuesday, there are numerous contests that will award a total of 185 delegates.

• This Saturday night in South Carolina, there are 50 delegates up for grabs. The statewide winner will receive all 29 at-large delegates, while the winner in each congressional district will receive an additional three delegates per district won (up to 21 delegates). With Haley heavily campaigning in her home state, this contest is the next major event to keep an eye on. Special coverage begins at 7 p.m. ET on Planet Chronicle Channel.
• In Michigan's primary, held on February 27 and March 2, 16 delegates are up for grabs. These delegates will be awarded proportionally to the candidates who receive 12.5% or more of the vote. On March 2, an additional 39 delegates will be awarded through district conventions.
• In Idaho on March 2, a candidate who receives a majority of the statewide vote will win all 32 delegates.
• On March 2, Missouri is conducting precinct caucuses, but the awarding of delegates will occur later in the process.
• In D.C., from March 1st to 3rd, there are 19 delegates waiting, and the winner will receive them all.

Super Tuesday

The name "Super Tuesday" comes from the significant number of states and delegates available in one night, totaling 874.

Here are the states and a summary of the key rules for each category of delegates, along with the total possible delegates for each category: 1. Presidential Electors: Each state has a number of presidential electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The candidate who wins the popular vote in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes. (538 electors in total) 2. Senators: Each state has two Senators, who are elected by the people of that state for a six-year term. (100 Senators in total) 3. Representatives: The number of Representatives a state has in Congress is based on its population, with states having one Representative for every 50,000 people. (435 Representatives in total) 4. Governors: Each state has a Governor, who is elected by the people of that state for a four-year term. (50 Governors in total) 5. Lieutenant Governors: Each state has a Lieutenant Governor, who is elected along with the Governor. The Lieutenant Governor's duties vary by state, but typically include serving as President of the Senate and performing

• In Alabama, there are 50 delegates in the statewide primary, with a majority-take-all system for candidates who receive more than 20% of the vote, and a winner-take-most system for congressional districts with 21 seats.
• Alaska: 29 delegates, proportional (13%+).
• American Samoa: 9 delegates nominated by a delegate resolution.
• Arkansas has 40 delegates in the statewide primary, which uses a majority-take-most or proportional system with a 15%+ threshold. The state's 12 congressional districts are decided using a winner-take-all or majority-take-all system.
• California: 169 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional.
• Colorado: 37 delegates, proportional (20%+).
• Maine: 20 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).
• Massachusetts: 40 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional.
• Minnesota has 39 delegates, with a statewide system that is either 80%-take-all or 20%+ proportional. The congressional districts are also proportional, with a 20%+ threshold. If a candidate wins 80%+ of the statewide vote, they will also win all the congressional district delegates.
• In North Carolina, there are 74 delegates in the statewide election, with proportional representation accounting for 20% or more. The congressional districts are divided into 42, with a winner-take-most or ⅔-take-all system.
• Oklahoma has 43 delegates, with a statewide system that uses either a majority-take-all or proportional method (with a threshold of 15%+) for selecting congressional districts (also using a majority-take-all or proportional method with a threshold of 15%+).
• Tennessee has 58 delegates, with statewide elections being either a ⅔-take-all or proportional system (with at least 20% of the vote), and congressional districts being either ⅔-take-all or winner-take-most (27 districts).
• The number of delegates in Texas is 161, with 48 being statewide and using proportional representation (at least 20%). The 114 congressional districts in Texas use either majority-take-all or proportional representation (at least 20%).
• Utah: 40 delegates. Majority-take-all or proportional (15%+).
• Vermont: 17 delegates. Majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).
• The number of delegates in Virginia is 48, with the statewide election using a majority-take-all or proportional system (15%+). Similarly, the congressional districts in Virginia also use a majority-take-all or proportional system (15%+).

With majority-take-all rules in most Super Tuesday states, the winning candidate is likely to secure all delegates in a two-candidate race.

Later in March

As March progresses, there are two additional "mini Super Tuesday" events and other contests.

• Wyoming, ending March 10: 12 delegates through county conventions.

• Georgia has 59 delegates in the state legislature, with 17 of them being elected through a proportional system that gives 20% or more of the vote to the winning candidate. The state's 42 congressional districts are decided using a majority-take-all or winner-take-most system.
• Hawaii has 19 delegates in the state legislature, with 13 districts elected through proportional representation. Additionally, the state's six congressional districts are also elected through proportional representation.
• Mississippi has 40 delegates in the statewide primary, which uses a majority-take-all or proportional system with a 20% allocation. The state has 12 congressional districts, and the winner of the statewide primary takes all the district delegates.
• The number of delegates in Washington is 43, with the statewide system being either majority-take-all or proportional (20%+). Additionally, the state has 30 congressional districts that operate under the same system (20%+).

If Trump wins the March 12 contests, he will become the presumptive nominee with a total of 1,295 delegates by the end of March 12.

March 12 is the earliest possible date of a Trump victory

Given that Haley has invested in several upcoming states, a win on March 12 is unlikely.

It may not be until March 19, when several states with significant delegate counts hold their primaries, that the outcome of the presidential race becomes more certain.

The total number of delegates awarded ticks up again starting March 15:

• Northern Marianas, March 15: 9 delegates, winner-take-all.
• We'll exclude the 9 unbound delegates from Guam, which occurred on March 16.

On March 19, Super Tuesday III will occur, with a total of 350 delegates being awarded in one night.

• Arizona: 43 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Florida: 125 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Illinois has 64 delegates in the statewide winner-take-all election for Congressional districts, with 51 districts to be elected.
• Kansas: 39 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Ohio: 79 delegates, winner-take-all.

If Trump maintains his lead in the race, he could potentially secure all 350 delegates tonight, bringing his total to 1,654 delegates.

March 19 is a possible Trump victory date

There is only one more contest in late March:

• Louisiana, March 23: 47 delegates, winner-take-all.

If Haley were less competitive in the race, then Trump could potentially reach 1,215 delegates before April 2.

If Haley had won a significant number of delegates, she could have become the presumptive nominee late in the primary season.

If the race continues into April, it will become competitive

There are still many delegates on the table in April. In summary:

• The total number of delegates for the states of Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin is 195.
• April 6: Missouri (district conventions). 40 delegates.
• Ending April 20: Wyoming (state convention). 17 delegates.
• April 21: Puerto Rico. 23 delegates.
• On April 23, Pennsylvania has a total of 67 delegates, with 16 of them being bound delegates.

The remaining states are split between May and June for both Trump and Haley to prevail.

• On May 4, Missouri held its state convention with a total of 14 delegates present, including 11 bound delegates and 3 unbound delegates.
• May 7: Indiana. 58 delegates.
• May 14: Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. 105 delegates.
• May 21: Kentucky and Oregon. 77 delegates.
• On June 4th, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota had a total of 63 bound delegates and 31 unbound delegates.

No matter what, we will have a presumptive winner before June 5.