Trump selects House Republicans for his second cabinet.

In a short period of time, Trump appointed Reps. Matt Gaetz, Mike Waltz and others.

Trump selects House Republicans for his second cabinet.
Trump selects House Republicans for his second cabinet.

First, there was House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.

President-elect Trump tapped her to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.

Then there was Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla.

The incoming President asked Waltz to become his national security adviser.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., was chosen by Mr. Trump for attorney general, but he resigned shortly after.

A few days can significantly deplete the resources of an institution.

"I hope no more talented individuals are pulled out of the House for a while until special elections," said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.

It’s about the math.

President-elect Donald Trump is pictured in front of the U.S. Capitol
President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. Capitol. (Getty Images)

If Stefanik, Waltz, and Gaetz join the House Republicans, they are likely to secure a majority of 221 seats, while the Democrats will have 214 seats. This gives the GOP a margin of seven seats. However, this means that the Republicans can only lose three votes on any given roll call and still pass the issue without needing assistance from the Democrats.

The House majority has decreased to 218-214 with Gaetz's departure and the departure of Stefanik and Waltz. This leaves a margin of four votes. However, Republicans can only lose one vote. It is almost impossible to have perfect attendance in the House, and absences are inevitable.

But what if there are more departures?

According to a senior House GOP source, the Republican majority could lose no more than two House members to the Trump administration before Gaetz's departure.

The source stated that they are unsure if the administration has a specific number in mind.

In the House, you cannot appoint a member. Instead, governors must call special elections to fill these seats. For example, if Stefanik resigns, it may take Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul three to four months to call a special election.

These are seats that are typically held by Republicans, but special elections can result in unexpected outcomes as the usual voter turnout may not occur.

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., groused that Hochul, given her cynical attempt at politics, will likely use the full 90 days.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., contacted Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to discuss the possibility of holding a special election for the seat left vacant by Gaetz. The goal is to elect a Republican successor to Gaetz to Congress shortly after the new year.

If Vice President-elect JD Vance's Senate seat is filled by Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, then Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, could be appointed. Alternatively, if Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., is chosen for an administration post or to succeed Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., in the Senate, it would create a House vacancy.

Gaetz waves on RNC stage
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., waves on stage at the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee July 17.  (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

"Johnson stated that President Trump comprehends and values the significance of the math in this situation. However, he emphasized that every vote would matter, as any unforeseen circumstances like illness, accidents, or flight delays could impact the outcome on the floor. As a result, the administration is aware of this and is prepared to handle any potential complications."

Johnson stated, "I anticipate that our membership numbers will remain stable."

Then President-elect Trump drafted Gaetz.

Despite having a narrow majority, House Republicans faced challenges in advancing their own agenda. To avoid government shutdowns and lift the debt ceiling, they relied on the support of Democrats. Their first impeachment attempt against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was unsuccessful. Additionally, Republicans took 27 days to decide on a speaker of the House in two separate instances last year.

At the start of Congress, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., was unable to secure the position due to the GOP's slim numbers. It took House Republicans over three weeks to choose a successor to McCarthy for the same reasons during the fall.

So, what is past is prologue.

A failure of simple parliamentary algebra could stymie the agenda of President-elect Trump.

Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., emphasized the importance of maintaining majorities between himself and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.

If Molinaro had kept his seat, the GOP would have had a larger advantage.

Trump is acutely aware of the problem in the House.

The president-elect assured Mike that he wouldn't be taking too many more votes before they started counting. Mike requested that the president-elect slow down a bit, to which the president-elect responded, "I just like the people in Congress." The president-elect then apologized to Mike and urged him to relax.

The GOP is factoring in potential absences and vacancies into their legislative plans for the upcoming year.

Mike Johnson, Donald Trump
U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson shakes hands with President-elect Trump onstage at a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington, D.C.  (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, vice chairman of the House Republican Conference, stated that a one-seat majority vote would require logistical planning if someone was sick.

It is not always easy to assume that everyone present and accounted for is in agreement with the issue at hand. Republicans have frequently faced this challenge in the past two years.

"The Republican Party is deeply divided, as evidenced by their victory, but their unity may not last long, according to former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. Despite their victory, there are significant philosophical and procedural differences within the party that were evident in the previous Congress."

In the new year, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., advised Republicans not to anticipate any assistance from the minority party.

According to Jeffries, if you believe that the mandate is overwhelming, then the American people will expect you to do the basics in governing.

The country is facing another collision with the debt ceiling, which is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year. According to Jeffries, if Republicans are in power and have the backing of voters, they should be able to prevent a catastrophic default on the nation's debt.

But Jeffries added a caveat about last week’s election.

He said that if he believed it was an overwhelming mandate.

The challenge for House Republicans is to act on the people's demands, but managing the equation in the House is difficult, and departures for the next administration do not simplify the math.

by Chad Pergram

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