To succeed in taking 'New Hampshire Gold,' Haley must excel in these cities.
Former Gov Nikki Haley's performances in Manchester, Nashua, Concord, and Bedford are being closely watched.
The Planet Chronicle Power Rankings specified the requirements for the GOP contenders to make the race more competitive.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida had to exceed vote share expectations and win "Iowa Silver."
Despite finishing in second place with 21% of the vote, the Florida governor was never able to significantly impact the race.
Winning New Hampshire is the only requirement for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Winning gold will not be easy. Despite the state's large bloc of "undeclared" voters, the former president won the Granite State in his first presidential run.
If Haley wins, the pathway runs through the townships below.
Highly populated areas: Manchester, Nashua, Concord, and Bedford
In Iowa, Trump won in all but one county last week. The exception was Johnson County, one of the state's most populous, where Haley emerged victorious by a single vote.
Rural voters across the country consistently support Trump, making it crucial for his opponents to secure victories in urban areas.
In the 2016 primary, Haley must excel in the four cities with the highest raw vote count in New Hampshire.
In 2016, the Republican establishment in Ohio, Florida, and other states combined to defeat Trump by about 6 points, or 42%-36%.
- Manchester (Trump 37.3%, "establishment" 39.2%)
- Nashua (Trump 35.2%, "establishment" 43.9%)
- Concord (Trump 28.8%, "establishment" 50.5%)
- Bedford (Trump 27.9%, "establishment" 46.4%)
To make a race of it, Haley will need to post strong results in New Hampshire, where there are no simple comparisons due to different fields and pseudo-open primary rules.
The former governor's affluent suburb of Manchester is particularly important to Haley, as it is home to the types of voters most likely to vote for him.
In the 2020 general election, Biden won Bedford, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had done so since at least 1972.
In the 2016 New Hampshire primary, the four towns accounted for 16% of the total vote out of the 234 municipalities in the state.
17% of the state's "undeclared" voters reside in the same towns, and they have the option to vote either Democrat or Republican.
The college towns: Hanover & Durham
In Iowa last week, Haley won a one-vote victory in Johnson County, which is also where a large university is located.
In New Hampshire, Haley will be looking for strong results in:
- Hanover, home to Dartmouth University
- Durham, home to the University of New Hampshire
In 2016, Kasich won Hanover by a significant 24 points, making it one of the few towns where he emerged victorious. Trump came in second in Hanover with 18%, while Kasich was fourth with 11%. Conversely, Trump won Durham by a narrow margin of just 3.5 points over Kasich.
To keep the race competitive tonight, Haley must win in these small towns by a significant margin. The size of her victory here will offer insights into the strength of her overall vote.
Last polls close at 8PM
The results will start appearing at 7 p.m. ET, but 20 towns across the state will not shut down until 8 p.m., including Nashua.
Rural areas are likely to provide early returns, but be cautious as they may not accurately reflect the overall vote.
Planet Chronicle Channel is broadcasting Democracy 24 all day and into the evening, with expert analysis from the Planet Chronicle Voter Analysis and the Planet Chronicle Decision Desk, who will declare the winner.
The Democratic race between President Biden, Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson will also be covered by Planet Chronicle.
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