The US debt crisis is expected to result in a high-stakes confrontation on Capitol Hill.

The consequences of not raising the debt limit by the 'X-date' would be 'severe'.

The US debt crisis is expected to result in a high-stakes confrontation on Capitol Hill.
The US debt crisis is expected to result in a high-stakes confrontation on Capitol Hill.

A new calculation predicts that a potential showdown over the U.S. debt limit will occur on Capitol Hill by mid-June.

The EPIC released a new model on Monday stating that there is a "possibility" that the U.S. government will run out of funds to pay its debts by June 16, 2025.

"The government is projected to have a $2 trillion deficit next year, meaning that the spending obligations incurred by Congress and the government exceed the expected tax revenues. According to Matthew Dickerson, director of Budget Policy at EPIC, to meet these obligations on time, the debt limit must be increased."

Last year, President Biden and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., reached an agreement that temporarily suspended the debt limit until January 2025. However, during this period, the national debt exceeded $36 trillion.

Capitol with falling money
A possible showdown over raising the debt limit looms on Capitol Hill.

The Treasury Department can stave off a national default for approximately six more months by implementing "extraordinary measures," according to EPIC's analysis, until the "X-date."

If the debt limit is not increased, it could result in significant economic downturns in both the U.S. and worldwide.

In May 2021, Biden and McCarthy reached a deal to avoid a federal default on June 5. However, Fitch had already downgraded the U.S.'s AAA credit rating to AA+, causing turmoil in domestic financial markets.

Dickerson stated that Congress has numerous pressing legislative priorities to address before engaging in debt limit discussions, and thus, he was not bracing for another 11th-hour agreement.

He stated that it would be challenging for Congress to handle this.

The negotiations can also serve as a chance for Republicans to propose significant deficit reduction plans, EPIC's paper suggested.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden
President Biden, right, and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy famously had a monthslong standoff over the debt limit. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite / Carolyn Kaster, File)

Dickerson stated that reaching the debt limit should serve as a warning and prompt action, sounding the alarm.

The report stated that historically, debt limit discussions have facilitated the political environment required for deficit reduction agreements, providing an opportunity in 2025 to combine necessary debt limit increases with measures to control spending and stimulate economic growth.

The national debt was attributed to "excessive spending."

"The debt limit has been modified four times since August 2019, with two suspensions and two dollar-specific debt limit increases. As a result, the debt has grown by approximately $13.9 trillion over the past five years. However, the current fiscal trajectory, which involves government spending exceeding historical norms and growing at a faster rate than the economy, is unsustainable and harmful to American families."

The federal government's borrowing limit is the total amount it can borrow to fulfill its obligations, which include Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, and veterans' payments, among many others.

The protracted battle over government spending that fueled chaos in the 118th Congress resulted in the talks that led to suspending the debt limit last year.

McCarthy faced opposition from both Democrats and GOP hardliners on how to handle the debt limit and fiscal cliff.

Despite the changes in leadership and the balance of power in Congress, Dickerson emphasized that Democrats will still have a role in negotiations due to the GOP's narrow margins.

"To achieve a bipartisan agreement, you must have something that appeals to everyone, as President Trump will not sign anything that significantly increases spending and is deemed irresponsible with debt."

by Elizabeth Elkind

politics

The next Ohio senator, who identifies as a "fiscal conservative," intends to "minimize government intervention in people's lives."

The next Ohio senator, who identifies as a "fiscal conservative," intends to "minimize government intervention in people's lives."

politics
The Treasury Department recovers $31 million in erroneous payments made to deceased individuals by the government.

The Treasury Department recovers $31 million in erroneous payments made to deceased individuals by the government.

politics
Legal experts criticize Biden's last-minute constitutional change as "cynical and irrelevant."

Legal experts criticize Biden's last-minute constitutional change as "cynical and irrelevant."

politics
Michelle Obama celebrates her birthday with her husband, who avoids key public events.

Michelle Obama celebrates her birthday with her husband, who avoids key public events.

politics
A methane emissions fee is being challenged by 23 state attorneys general who have filed a lawsuit against the EPA.

A methane emissions fee is being challenged by 23 state attorneys general who have filed a lawsuit against the EPA.

politics
Trump plans to make changes at the State Department without Senate confirmation, according to a source.

Trump plans to make changes at the State Department without Senate confirmation, according to a source.

politics
Sources reveal that DOGE co-leader Ramaswamy is considering a 2026 run for governor in Ohio.

Sources reveal that DOGE co-leader Ramaswamy is considering a 2026 run for governor in Ohio.

politics
Biden's official Twitter account faces criticism for referencing a non-existent constitutional amendment.

Biden's official Twitter account faces criticism for referencing a non-existent constitutional amendment.

politics
If Laken Riley were DHS secretary, she would still be alive, according to freshman senator Mayorkas.

If Laken Riley were DHS secretary, she would still be alive, according to freshman senator Mayorkas.

politics
Gov. Sanders reveals strategy to enable parents to take legal action against Big Tech for contributing to adolescent mental health emergency.

Gov. Sanders reveals strategy to enable parents to take legal action against Big Tech for contributing to adolescent mental health emergency.

politics
The last indoor inauguration ceremony took place in 1985, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

The last indoor inauguration ceremony took place in 1985, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

politics
Trump may avoid inaugural crowd size controversy by moving the swearing-in indoors.

Trump may avoid inaugural crowd size controversy by moving the swearing-in indoors.

politics
Under Biden, DOJ has been politicized; Ted Cruz believes Pam Bondi will reverse it.

Under Biden, DOJ has been politicized; Ted Cruz believes Pam Bondi will reverse it.

politics
On 'day one,' Trump's DHS nominee Noem vows to abolish contentious migrant app.

On 'day one,' Trump's DHS nominee Noem vows to abolish contentious migrant app.

politics
SCOTUS TikTok ban receives mixed reactions from privacy groups, experts, and parents.

SCOTUS TikTok ban receives mixed reactions from privacy groups, experts, and parents.

politics
Activist Forcibly Removed from Blinken's Last Press Conference: "I'm Being Hurt!"

Activist Forcibly Removed from Blinken's Last Press Conference: "I'm Being Hurt!"

politics
Trump may take action on TikTok ban in 'not too distant future' after reviewing SCOTUS decision.

Trump may take action on TikTok ban in 'not too distant future' after reviewing SCOTUS decision.

politics
The governor's first major act saw the elimination of the DEI department in a Midwest state.

The governor's first major act saw the elimination of the DEI department in a Midwest state.

politics