The outcome of the next presidential election could be influenced by these "indicator" counties.

A survey group director reveals that both campaigns view Pennsylvania as the key to reaching the White House.

The outcome of the next presidential election could be influenced by these "indicator" counties.
The outcome of the next presidential election could be influenced by these "indicator" counties.

Experts are closely monitoring certain counties' results, which could determine the next president.

These swing counties, referred to as "bellwether counties," have a history of consistently supporting the winning candidate for many decades, with only a few exceptions.

A "microcosm of the nation" in terms of political preferences is how Matthew Bergbower, a political science professor at Indiana State University, described a bellwether county.

Despite Vigo County in Indiana diverging from its usual voting pattern by supporting Donald Trump in 2020, it has consistently chosen the victorious candidate in every election since 1952.

Voters casting ballots in Georgia
Voters cast their ballots during the last day of early voting in Gwinnett County, Ga., on Nov. 1, 2024. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

In every presidential election since 1980, Clallam County in Washington state has been the only county to vote for the winning candidate. The residents of Clallam County take pride in their reputation as the "last bellwether county" in the United States.

This year, the county looks just as divided as ever.

According to Pam Blakeman, chair of the Clallam County Republicans, the election in their county will be tight, but she predicts it will lean towards Trump.

She claims that the high Republican turnout and the most active ground game she has ever seen are the basis for her statement.

SBA Canvassers
SBA Pro-Life America says its voter contact program has knocked on 4 million doors in swing states. (SBA Pro-Life America)

A Trump win in Clallam County would be unexpected at this time, according to Ben Anderstone, a political consultant from Washington.

"It is predicted that Clallam County will be leaning towards the left in the nation this year. In the August primary, Clallam County was heavily Democratic, with 57% voting for Democrats and 43% for Republicans. However, lower-turnout voters in Clallam County tend to be more Republican, so the presidential election is expected to be much closer. Despite this, the model suggests that Clallam County will only tighten to a 53%-47% Democratic advantage or so."

In the presidential election, the outcome is uncertain. However, with the GOP nominee being former President Trump and the Democrat nominee being Vice President Harris, three counties in Pennsylvania - Bucks, Erie, and Northampton - are crucial.

In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the most crucial swing state for both Trump and Harris. This state has been a focal point for both candidates during this election cycle, particularly in these three counties.

Vice President Harris, the Democrat presidential nominee, headlines a rally in Allentown, Pa., on Nov. 4, 2024.
Vice President Harris, the Democrat presidential nominee, headlines a rally in Allentown, Pa., on Nov. 4, 2024. (Planet Chronicle - Paul Steinhauser)

On the last day before the election, Trump and Harris campaigned in Pennsylvania, while Vance and Walz made stops across the state.

According to Berwood Yost, director of the national survey group the Center for Opinion Research, both campaigns view Pennsylvania as a key battleground for reaching the White House. Additionally, Yost stated that the path to success in Pennsylvania lies through Bucks, Erie, and Northampton counties.

Bucks, located north of Philadelphia, is a primarily suburban county. In contrast, Erie, situated on Lake Erie in far northwestern Pennsylvania, is a rural area with a smaller population. Lastly, Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania, is suburban and houses Lehigh University, a private research college.

Pennsylvania's three largest cities, according to Yost, share many of the same demographic characteristics that make the state so competitive, including racial composition, educational attainment, and population density.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is shown at a campaign rally on Oct. 29, 2024, in Allentown, Pa. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is shown at a campaign rally on Oct. 29, 2024, in Allentown, Pa. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In 2020, President Biden won Pennsylvania by a very small 1.17 percent margin. The margins in Bucks, Erie, and Northampton were also very close, at 4.37%, 1.03%, and 0.72% respectively.

Yost stated that, like the rest of the country, people in these counties are generally dissatisfied with the economy and desire change, which could be a positive indicator for Trump. However, he pointed out that the closeness of the race makes it seem that they haven't been able to capitalize on this sentiment.

"The reason the race is so close is that the message has not been consistently articulated by the top of the ticket, which has raised some concerns among some voters."

The outcome of the race will depend on the choices made by independent voters and traditional Republicans who are not strongly supportive of Trump.

"The inflection point of this election, according to him, will be determined by the voters' stance on the economy. If they are uncertain and believe the economy is the key issue, it will benefit Trump. However, if they focus on other matters while voting, it will negatively impact the Trump campaign."

by Peter Pinedo

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