The Hitchhiker's Guide to Electing a House Speaker: A Speaker's Lobby

The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begins at noon et on Friday.

The first order of business in the House is to choose the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch: Speaker of the House.

The House cannot act until it elects a Speaker.

The House cannot swear-in Members until a Speaker is tapped and sworn-in, after which the entire body is sworn-in en masse. Following this, the House must adopt a rules package to govern daily operations. Only then can the House engage in debating bills, voting, and forming committees for hearings.

If the House cannot choose a Speaker on the first vote, it will move on to a second round of voting.

And on and on.

In 1923, it took four ballots to re-elect late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., after the House had never even taken a second vote for Speaker in a century before the donnybrook two years ago.

The House's history of consuming 15 rounds over five days to elect former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January 2023, foreshadowed the challenges that would follow. The Speakership remained vacant for 22 days after McCarthy was dumped nine months later, leaving the House frozen. House Republicans then tapped House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., for Speaker, but Scalise withdrew his name before a floor vote. House GOPers then tapped Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become Speaker, but Jordan lost three consecutive votes for Speaker on the House floor, losing support on each ballot. Finally, House Republicans anointed House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker, only for Emmer to withdraw hours later.

House Republicans have nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the position. Despite winning on the floor, some conservatives have been disappointed in Johnson's handling of interim spending bills from November, including one that aided Ukraine and another that he did in September. They also criticized his work with Democrats on major legislation and his misstep with the 1,500-page interim spending package that was pulverized by Trump and Musk in December. Additionally, 38 House Republicans bolted on a bill that included a debt ceiling increase, which Johnson did President-elect Trump's bidding on.

Johnson's tenure has been tumultuous, which is why he is facing a vote for Speaker on Friday afternoon. Everyone on Capitol Hill is eager to resolve this matter quickly.

Here’s what will happen Friday at noon:

The acting House Clerk, Kevin McCumber, will preside over the House until a Speaker is elected. The first order of business is a "call of the House," where the House determines the number of its Members-elect. The House should have 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There is one vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall and stated that he did not intend to serve in the new Congress, despite winning reelection.

The Speaker's election in the House is determined by the number of lawmakers present in the chamber. According to Fox, Democrats who have recently faced health issues, including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., are expected to be present.

The incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., and the House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries, respectively, for Speaker of the House. Afterward, anyone else can put forth a nomination.

The House conducts a roll call of Members-elect, with each Member verbally responding by name. The first names to be called are Alma Adams, D-N.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and Aguilar.

Lawmakers have the ability to cast votes for any individual they choose, even those who are not members of the House. As a result, there have been votes cast for various individuals such as the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker.

To win the Speakership, Johnson, or anyone else, must do this.

To win the election, a candidate must receive a majority of votes from all members.

If Johnson receives 219 votes from Republicans, he will win the election. However, if he receives 218 votes, he will also win. If he receives 217 votes, he will not win. In this scenario, Johnson would have outpolled Jeffries by two votes, but the "most votes" does not determine the winner. The House must take another ballot to elect a Speaker because 217 is not an outright majority of House members voting for someone by name.

Some Republicans are being cagey about their votes, with estimates suggesting there could be anywhere from 12 to 17 who might not support Johnson.

Here’s something to watch: Members who vote "present."

Some Republicans may protest against Johnson by casting a "present" vote, which does not diminish his support.

So let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Johnson becomes Speaker with an outright majority of 216 votes, despite only 431 Members voting for someone by name.

But there is serious danger in too many Republicans voting "present."

Consider this scenario:

Jeffries was elected Speaker of the House with an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name, receiving 215 votes out of a total of 429 cast ballots. However, five Republicans voted "present," and Johnson recorded 214 votes.

You're playing a risky game, Bond.

If Republicans attempt to play games with the House's slim margin, they risk causing a fire. While some conservatives may not want to re-elect Johnson as Speaker, they definitely do not want Jeffries.

If the House fails to act promptly, it may delay the certification of the Electoral College vote on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in a Joint Session of Congress on January 6 to certify the election results. Without a Speaker of the House, there will be no Joint Session.

If Republicans struggle to elect a Speaker, a full-on brawl is likely to occur between Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans against right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus, and other freelancers.

And as we wrote earlier, what is past is prologue.

The prolonged struggle for the Speakership marks the beginning of the impending internal strife among Republicans regarding governance. Additionally, achieving just one element of President-elect Trump's agenda will be a challenging task.