The debate has zeroed in on how Trump or Kamala could win.

No one knows who’s going to win this election.

In the top battleground states, the polls are so close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris that a small number of voters or even the weather could determine the outcome.

Kamala's campaign has slowed down after the Democratic convention, as her initial momentum may have been lost due to her campaign's focus on joy and vibes.

The approval rating of Joe Biden has increased to 48%, which is the highest during his presidency. Despite some pundits attributing the rise to an improving economy, the real reason is that the president is no longer in the spotlight due to his stepping aside.

The upcoming ABC debate on Tuesday may be the only encounter between the two candidates. If Trump can control himself and make Harris responsible for Biden's unpopular record, he will win. If Harris can handle Trump's attacks and maintain her composure, she will have closed the gap in stature.

The airwaves will be filled with partisans praising their candidate's victory over the other candidate.

The New York Times featured two anti-Trump conservative columnists who wrote contrasting articles reflecting on a Trump or Harris victory.

David Brooks, who is close to Biden, stated that the Trump campaign's main objective was to portray Kamala Harris as an elitist San Francisco liberal before she could establish herself as a middle-class moderate. Despite their efforts, the Trump campaign failed to provide a compelling argument, relying solely on 2019 clips of Harris sounding like a typical liberal cliché.

The error could have been catastrophic for the Republicans because Trump received approximately 46% of the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. Since he couldn't rely on a majority wave to win in 2024, it would have been advantageous to lower his opponent's support.

"Despite his efforts to undermine his own campaigns, Trump manages to perform well in elections."

Trump outperforms his pre-election polling by 2-3% in the last two elections, which pundits should already recognize.

According to Brooks, the fastest-growing states are mostly governed by Republicans, including Florida, Texas, Idaho, and Montana, despite Trump's "jerkish" behavior.

The media, universities, cultural institutions, and government are largely controlled by the Democrats. Even major corporations, based in cities like New York and San Francisco, are leaning towards blue.

"The educated elites consistently make a pledge to perform tasks for us, but ultimately prioritize their own interests."

In my opinion, Trump's success has been due to his ability to tap into the resentments of less educated voters who feel that the system is stacked against them. This is something that many journalists, who often move in the same circles as Democrats, fail to grasp.

Trump has the right enemies, which is why MAGA voters have been willing to overlook Jan. 6, indictments, and even his softening stance on abortion, while dismissing Trump voters as yahoos, racists, xenophobes, and deplorables.

Ross Douthat discusses the potential impact of a Harris victory, arguing that the liberal orthodoxy, also known as the "everything bagel" spirit, has gained significant influence in American politics.

"You can move from an Ivy League faculty lounge to a corporate human resources department to a Hollywood gathering to a magazine editorial meeting and feel like you're part of a one-party state."

The Democratic vice president mostly adopted a minimalist approach to her platform, focusing on tidying up the party's messaging rather than offering a comprehensive moderate agenda or engaging in confrontation with left-wing interest groups.

"Her speech at the convention was characterized by brevity, sparseness, and a focus on restoring Roe v. Wade, protecting middle-class entitlements, and preventing Trump from becoming president. The interest groups received vague gestures rather than direct shout-outs and promises."

The media strategy involved only one interview with CNN and the abandonment of past left-wing views, which irritated Republicans.

So how did she win? By liberating her party from laundry-list liberalism.

"According to Douthat, being a Democrat during the Trump era was more relaxed and enjoyable when it meant being pro-choice and anti-Trump. On the other hand, Trump supporters criticized him for being too undisciplined and self-centered to deliver a consistent anti-Harris message."

Both columnists rely on assumptions that may or may not happen.

Which is why the 2024 contest remains impossible to forecast.

Trump outperformed his polling and the make-or-break debate.

The upcoming debate has the potential to determine which candidate will be the "change" candidate and ultimately succeed in the Oval Office, whether it is a former president or the incumbent vice president.