The 2024 election cycle is nearing its conclusion – here's what we know.

There was some shock at the outcome of last week’s election.

The control of the House and Senate was generally anticipated by many learned observers.

A Republican Senate was likely with a slim majority, given the high probability of GOP control.

The House of Representatives was predicted to be closely divided, with the majority and minority parties likely to reflect the outcome of the Presidential election. The only uncertainty was which party would hold the majority.

You know the rest.

The House is likely to be in Republican hands, with between 221-223 seats. The Senate has moved to the GOP, with a few pickups.

Despite what people may say about the Presidential election, the predictions about the House and Senate were mostly accurate.

In the Senate, Republicans consistently had an advantage, and with Sen.-elect Jim Justice, R-W.V., taking over the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.V., who aligned with the Democrats, the GOP could secure an immediate gain.

In the upcoming election cycle, Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana were the most vulnerable Democrats. Despite their states' support for President-elect Trump, they managed to secure their re-elections in difficult circumstances. Additionally, both senators had a history of winning elections in Democratic years, specifically in 2006, 2012, and 2018.

In 2006, Democrats won both the House and Senate, marking President George W. Bush's "six-year itch" election. The second midterm is typically tough for the party of the president in Congress. In 2012, voters sent former President Obama back to the White House. Democrats also won the House in 2018.

2024? Not a good year for Democrats.

In Ohio, Mr. Trump won the election by an impressive 11-point margin.

It was assumed that Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, would trail behind Mr. Trump and that the President-elect needed to win Ohio by approximately 10 points to defeat Brown. However, Moreno unexpectedly defeated Brown by just four points.

Sen.-elect Dave McCormick, R-Penn., has defeated Sen. Bob Casey, D-Penn., in the Keystone State. The poor performance of Vice President Harris in Pennsylvania contributed to the defeat of Democrats like Casey. Harris lost the state by about two points. In addition to Casey, Senators Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., were also on the same election cycle: 2006, 2012, 2018, and 2024. Democrats had a chance to flip the House had they performed better in Pennsylvania. However, they failed to unseat former Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Scott Perry, R-Penn. Meanwhile, GOP challengers defeated Reps. Susan Wild, D-Penn., and Matt Cartwright, D-Penn. Democrats needed to defeat Perry and hold those seats to claim the House.

In a battleground state won by Mr. Trump, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., and Rep. and Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., emerged victorious, while their colleagues, including Brown, Tester and Casey, faced defeat.

In the House, Democrats managed to retain several crucial seats they required to take control. Rep.-elect Eugene Vindman, D-Va., emerged victorious over Republican Derrick Anderson in central Virginia. Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Emilia Sykes, D-Ohio, also secured their seats despite the losses of their respective party leaders.

In the swingiest district in the country, Freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M, won re-election, defeating former Rep. Yvette Herrell, R-N.M. In southern New Mexico, Vasquez's district has alternated between the parties in every election since 2016. Meanwhile, in Oregon, Democrat Janelle Bynum is leading Republican Lori Chavez-Deremer. In Washington, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash, topped Republican Joe Kent. Gluesenkamp Perez was the surprise winner of all House races in 2022.

Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., stated during an interview with colleague Bret Baier that moderates like Gluesenkamp Perez ran successful campaigns by tailoring their messaging to fit their districts and secured reelection.

Marie faced criticism from the Washington state Democratic party for her votes and positions. They threatened her with a primary, but she still won in a Trump-plus-six district.

Smith suggested that fellow Democrats should take cues from Gluesenkamp Perez, Reps. Don Davis, D-N.C., Pat Ryan, D-N.Y., and Vasquez.

Democrats appeared to take several actions required to secure a majority in the House.

But not enough.

Take California.

It was believed that having Vice President Harris on the ticket could aid Democrats in winning five to six seats in California. Harris was previously the state's Attorney General and a U.S. senator.

No dice.

Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., won her race, while Reps. David Valadao, R-Calif., Ken Calvert, R-Calif., Michelle Steel, R-Calif., and John Duarte, R-Calif., are all set to retain their seats. The race between Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., and Democratic challenger George Whitesides is too close to call, as is the contest between Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh in the state's 47th Congressional district. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., vacated her seat in her unsuccessful bid for the Senate.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., stated on Fox Business that the voter shift in a deep blue state was significant, even though we are a deep blue state.

The current breakdown in the House is as follows:

With 435 members, the breakdown of the House of Representatives should be 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats, considering the three vacancies caused by the deaths of Sheila Jackson Lee and Bill Pascrell, and the resignation of Mike Gallagher.

In the end, campaigns will have spent billions of dollars on House races, but the results will likely be similar to the current breakdown, with a probable Republican majority just a seat or two away.

If the Republican majority is 221 to 214 Democrats, with a margin of seven votes, they can only lose three votes on their side before needing help from Democrats to pass bills. This issue has been a challenge for the Republican majority for the past two years, as it is difficult to pass anything with more than a few defectors or if one or two Republicans are absent. As I often say, it is challenging to get 435 people in the same room at the same time.

If President-elect Trump wins a solid victory for Republicans, party discipline may be enforced for many of his legislative initiatives. However, challenges may arise when the GOP attempts to advance tax reform, causing budget hawks to object due to the potential deficit increase. Additionally, New York Republicans may demand the restoration of the state and local tax deduction, commonly known as SALT.

While Republicans are predicted to have 53 seats in the Senate, this is still short of the 60 votes required to end a filibuster. Although this is an improvement from the 51 Democrats held in this Congress, it's important to remember that Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have a history of disagreeing with the Trump administration.

The GOP faces potential headaches in governing due to the challenges presented by the parliamentary algebra in the 119th Congress, despite their increased alignment since President-elect Trump's entry into office in 2017.