Reporter's Notebook: The real challenges are yet to come

How many times have people asked if you will be happy when the election ends?

After the election, the real challenges start.

The election process is not over on Tuesday, as it may take days to determine the outcome of the presidential race and the control of the House. The outcome of several thousand votes could decide the final result, and a thin margin of contested seats in the House could lead to weeks of challenges.

The Constitution stipulates that the House and Senate have the power to determine the elections, returns, and qualifications of their own members. In the upcoming Congress, the new House will be responsible for resolving any disputes regarding seating.

If the House can elect a speaker when the new Congress starts on Jan. 3, it will be the first time in history that House Republicans have not elected a speaker in two separate occasions.

We’ll come back to that in a moment.

After the final ballot is cast, some potential hazards could arise.

We can determine which party controls either the House or Senate when the results of the election are announced.

The outcome of the 2022 midterms Senate race was uncertain until late on Nov. 12 when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., was reelected, securing the Democrats' Senate majority.

The GOP majority in the House was not clear until November 16, despite McCarthy's prediction that Republicans might win as many as 50 seats.

In 2020, news organizations predicted that Democrats would retain the House on election night, but it wasn't until December that the true outcome was revealed. It took several weeks to determine the final results of numerous House races, which were decided by a small margin of votes.

The Senate majority was not determined until January 2021, when a pair of Georgia runoffs clarified that Democrats had tied the Senate, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to cast the deciding vote as president of the Senate.

These protracted election determinations are not a byproduct of recent polarization and controversy.

The outcome of the 2006 Senate election was uncertain until two days after the vote, when Democrat Jim Webb defeated Republican incumbent George Allen in Virginia, ultimately giving the Democrats control of the Senate.

The Senate outcome may be determined sooner or later this year, depending on the results of the election. If Republicans win big, they could secure a majority on election night. However, if Senate races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, and Texas are close, it may take a few days to determine which party has the majority.

The Senate's main concern is determining the new Republican leader.

In early January, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will step down from his leadership position, leaving the post open for Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., or other candidates to succeed him.

The selection of the Senate Republican leader will depend on whether Harris or Trump wins the election, or if the GOP gains or loses the majority. A secret vote for GOP leader is scheduled for November 13th, and if it becomes clear that Trump will be the next president, his influence could sway the decision of who the Republican senators choose as their next leader.

Then there’s the House.

The House is currently controlled by Republicans with a slim margin, and there are over 30 districts in swing states that could determine the outcome of the election.

But when will we know?

The House Republican Conference and Democratic Caucus hold their leadership elections around the same time in November. Regardless of their party affiliation or majority status, Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., will lead the House Democrats in the new Congress. If the Democrats win the majority, Jeffries is expected to become the Speaker of the House in the next session.

But for the GOP, things could get messy.

The outcome of the House leadership election may not be determined before the House Republicans hold their election in November and December. According to Republican Conference rules, candidates who have not yet been declared winners can attend the freshmen orientation and participate in the leadership elections. This means that individuals who may not eventually become House members could have a say in who the GOP selects for leadership positions and formally nominates as the Republican candidate for speaker on the floor on January 3.

If the House is not yet decided, a senior Republican source told Fox that there may be a push to delay leadership elections. This could be problematic if there are a significant number of GOP candidates in uncalled races who could have too much sway in the private voting process.

The issue facing Johnson is that if Republicans hold the House and gain a significant number of seats, he is likely to become Speaker of the House again. However, if the Republican majority is small, Johnson may win the nomination for Speaker in the GOP conference but may struggle to secure a victory on the floor early next year. The presence of a "President-elect Trump" could bolster Johnson's chances of becoming Speaker.

A group of three to 10 current House Republicans may have issues with Johnson. Johnson can secure the nomination for speaker with a simple majority of the House Republican Conference and address the entire House in January.

It’s about the math.

If Republicans have a small majority of 223 seats, Johnson only needs 112 votes to become the nominee for speaker in the November conference vote. However, when the entire House convenes on Jan. 3, Johnson or any other nominee will need an outright majority of all members casting ballots for a candidate by name. If the House is at 435 and all members vote for someone by name, the magic number is 218.

You see the problem.

The same issue that stumped McCarthy and the other GOP candidates who were unsuccessful in becoming speaker in October.

If Republicans lost their majority, Johnson could become minority leader with ease. He only needs the majority of his conference or caucus, which would be 109 votes if the GOP has 217 seats.

If there is a problem with electing a speaker on the floor in January, it is crucial to resolve it quickly. This is because Congress must begin certifying the Electoral College on January 6th. After starting its vote for speaker on January 3rd, 2023, the House did not elect McCarthy until the early hours of January 7th. Any delay in electing a speaker could cause significant problems for certifying the electoral vote, particularly if the presidential race is contested.

The House of Representatives is unable to perform any actions, including seating new members, until it selects a speaker. If a dispute arises over the speakership, it could lead to a standstill in the House and delay the counting of electoral votes. This situation could exacerbate the turmoil that occurred during the Electoral College certification in 2021.

On Dec. 20, the government will exhaust its funds.

Johnson navigated through several interim spending bills from autumn until spring, nearly causing government shutdowns. The speaker employed the same strategy that contributed to McCarthy's loss of speakership. Johnson angered many conservatives by approving a bill to fund Ukraine and pushing an omnibus spending bill in the spring.

Johnson may face opposition from conservatives if he tries to pass a bill to prevent a December shutdown without their support. However, if Trump is elected as the next president, he may have the final say on what Johnson should do, and Trump's approval could protect Johnson from criticism.

If Johnson makes a mistake on the spending bill, he could lose the speakership if the GOP maintains a majority. If Republicans win the House, Senate, and White House, they won't need Democrats' help. During their time in the minority, House Democrats have helped Republicans pass crucial legislation to prevent government shutdowns. If the GOP gains unified government this fall, Democrats may refuse to cooperate in the lame-duck session, forcing House Republicans to solve problems on their own.

The new Congress may begin with a government shutdown in January because House Republicans have not demonstrated their ability to pass a spending bill on their own that would be enacted into law.

In late 2018, the government was shut down as a new Congress began in January.

In the event of a government shutdown and a complicated speaker's election, the Electoral College certification may be delayed due to a contested presidential election.

I’ll let you read that all again to digest it.

The campaigning and voting process will end next week, but the real challenge lies ahead.