Outlier poll boosted Harris' late surge in betting odds, but Trump remains 'slightly favored.'

Kamala Harris has experienced a recent surge in her election odds, closing the gap between her and former President Trump.

As of Monday morning, Trump has a 13.1 point lead in the presidential betting odds, with Harris trailing 56% to 42.9%. However, this number represents a significant shift in the odds, as Harris trailed Trump by 28.9 percentage points just six days ago.

Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, stated on Monday that some polls have been showing a slight momentum towards Harris, indicating that the betters are seeing some progress.

As of Monday morning, Lott's website indicates that Trump has a 56.4% chance of winning the election, while Harris has a 43.1% chance. However, like the numbers on Real Clear Politics, Trump's lead has decreased by 5.3 percentage points over the past week.

Lott, a former program executive producer for the FOX Business Network, stated that multiple factors can influence betting behavior, citing a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa that revealed Harris leading Trump by one point, despite the state being thought to be a Republican stronghold.

Lott observed that Trump's odds of winning the state decreased from over 94% a week ago to 82.1% as of Monday morning, indicating that betters have seemingly reacted to the news.

"According to Lott, there is a narrative behind the poll that suggests abortion will be the driving force in the upcoming election, as it was in 2022, and women will vote in large numbers to elect Harris. He believes that bettors are assigning some probability to this being true."

Lott believes that the surge in Harris's support is not due to a small number of large bets in her favor, as seen on platforms like PredictIt, which restrict the number of bettors and bet sizes on specific outcomes, and align with every other platform tracked on his website.

Lott advised against relying too heavily on late momentum when assessing betting odds.

"According to Lott, market momentum is irrelevant for predicting future prices. If Harris is supposed to be in the lead, you can make a significant profit by investing in her now."

Lott predicts a tight election outcome that will depend on voter turnout.

According to Lott, on Election Day, Trump is predicted to have a slight edge.