No Proof of Citizenship, No Vote: Reporter's Notebook

No proof? No vote.

As in, proof of citizenship.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., held a conference call with House GOPers just before the House resumes session, advocating for an interim spending bill to prevent a government shutdown in October. However, the House Republicans plan to attach the SAVE Act, which requires proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, to the bill.

All Republicans voted yea two months ago. Five Democrats voted yea.

During the floor debate, Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, stated that if someone is here illegally and interferes in our elections, they deserve handcuffs, not an "I voted" sticker.

The House Freedom Caucus presented an interim spending bill and citizenship voting plan to the speaker. Some conservatives believe that illegal voting is a threat in the US, and they want to protect against it. There is concern that local jurisdictions like Oakland, Calif., allow noncitizens to vote for school board and city council, and the Freedom Caucus fears there aren't enough safeguards to prevent them from voting for federal offices. Republicans see the SAVE Act as a good campaign issue, as it puts Democrats on the spot about the consequences of the border crisis. Finally, former President Trump is pushing Republicans to take this approach.

"Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, stated that President Trump wants to see us pick a fight over a commonsense measure to ensure all American citizens vote in American elections, and that all Republicans support it, but it's only Democrats standing in the way."

The voting maneuver would help Johnson maintain his position and keep opponents at bay by creating unity among Republicans and strengthening the speaker's hand while putting pressure on Democrats.

Conservatives typically oppose temporary spending bills, particularly those that extend beyond the current fiscal year. However, they may be more willing to support a bill that goes through 2025 if they believe the GOP will maintain control of the House, take over the Senate, and bring back former President Trump to the White House. If this happens, the GOP can enact its own spending plans at an earlier stage.

If Congress passes an interim spending bill this month, Democrats will achieve their spending priorities through September 30, 2025. However, a stopgap bill that renews current funding until early next year would limit Democrats' influence, giving Republicans and Trump the chance to impose their own spending plans sooner.

But this plan must first pass the House.

The GOP aims to gain political advantage by having the five Democrats who previously supported the SAVE Act vote against it this time. This will allow Republicans to use the roll-call vote to attack vulnerable Democrats in the upcoming election.

The success of the plan is uncertain as not all Republicans are guaranteed to support it, and some automatically vote against interim spending bills. The outcome depends on the math.

If the combo bill passes the House, the Democrat-controlled Senate may remove the SAVE Act and send back a shorter interim spending bill. Many Senate Democrats and some Republicans are not in favor of the Freedom Caucus's proposal.

"Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz, stated that "This is a solution looking for a problem. There is no evidence that undocumented migrants vote." He added, "The problem doesn't exist, and it's creating a new system and requirements. There doesn't seem to be any necessity.""

The Senate has set a deadline of Sept. 30 for the House to align with its version of the bill.

Johnson must decide whether to pursue a shutdown or accept a Senate position and pass the bill with a bipartisan effort. If he chooses the former, he risks alienating the right and potentially causing internal political issues. However, if he opts for the latter, the House may pass a version of the spending bill with more Democrats than Republicans, which could infuriate the right.

"One senior House Republican stated, "It's necessary for us to have a backup plan.""

If the citizenship/2025 spending plan fails on the floor, Republicans will likely have to accept the Senate's position, even if they disagree with it. Alternatively, they risk facing a government shutdown. However, it will be particularly challenging for Republicans if they fail to approve any bill whatsoever.

The House will have four-day sessions next week and the following week, with a five-day finale before the election on Sept. 22. However, there is a possibility that the House may not meet during the final week of September if Congress funds the government and shutdown scenarios are avoided.

Some Republicans are eager to leave Washington early to campaign and have a high chance of doing so, according to a senior House GOP leadership.

Some Republicans will criticize the House for not taking a strong stance on the conservative position or not doing enough to support former President Trump with the spending plan. However, they will secretly be pleased if the original plan fails and a shorter-term spending package is passed, allowing them to go home and campaign a week earlier than planned.

The GOP is facing a dilemma as they struggle with a government shutdown before the election, which has negatively impacted their fundraising efforts. The outcome of the House of Representatives is uncertain, with only a few races remaining. It is not politically wise for the Republicans to spend more time fighting over government spending in Washington rather than campaigning, given the importance of the upcoming election.