Johnson faces a year of tight votes and acrimony: 'A lot of expectations'

Speaker Mike Johnson's politically perilous year is just beginning, as the high-stakes fight to lead the House of Representatives has ended.

Johnson, R-La., won the speaker's gavel despite facing opposition from Democrats and needing to lose only one fellow Republican due to the House GOP's narrow majority.

On Friday afternoon, all House Republicans except for Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., voted for Johnson. Two GOP lawmakers who initially voted for someone other than Johnson, Reps. Keith Self, R-Texas, and Ralph Norman, R-S.C., were eventually persuaded to switch their votes after speaking with Johnson and President-elect Trump.

Johnson will face a narrow margin as he assists President-elect Trump in fulfilling his promise of an active first 100 days.

Marc Short, former director of legislative affairs in the first Trump administration, warned of high expectations and potential pitfalls in an interview with Planet Chronicle Digital last month.

At least three fiscal fights are predicted to occur in the first half of 2025.

At the end of this month, two House Republicans, Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida, are leaving to join the Trump administration.

If the House GOP majority is reduced to 217 seats, compared to 215 for Democrats, Republicans will need to vote unanimously to pass any bills on a party-line vote.

Special elections are scheduled for April to fill the vacancies left by Waltz and Gaetz, while an election to replace Stefanik has not yet been announced.

Republicans are attempting to pass two conservative policy and spending overhauls through the "reconciliation" process, which reduces the Senate's voting threshold for certain budgetary issues from 60 votes to a simple majority.

Both parties have attempted to employ reconciliation to enact substantial fiscal policy changes that the opposing party typically rejects, necessitating exceptional levels of cooperation within both the House and Senate.

Expectations for budget reconciliation are immense, even with wide margins, and it's challenging to meet those expectations twice in a year, according to Short, who spoke to Planet Chronicle Digital.

"In three months, another funding bill and a debt ceiling fight will be added."

Republicans will face challenges with both the unlikely passage of reconciliation bills and the government funding deadline that was recently postponed until March 14.

In December, lawmakers from the House and Senate approved a temporary extension of the government funding levels for FY 2024, allowing more time for negotiators to finalize the budget for FY 2025.

If Congress fails to pass another funding extension or establish new priorities for FY 2025 by the deadline, it will risk causing a partial government shutdown.

The fiscal year ends on Sept. 30, which is also the date of the next government funding deadline.

During those months, Johnson will have to focus on more than just that.

In 2023, a bipartisan agreement was reached, which suspended the U.S. debt limit until January 2025. However, after this date, the Treasury Department will have to resort to "extraordinary measures" to prevent a national credit default.

The debt limit is the maximum amount of debt the U.S. government can incur while fulfilling previously made financial commitments. As of Christmas Eve, the national debt, which represents the total amount owed by the U.S. to its creditors, decreased to $36,161,621,015,445.57, according to the most recent data from the Treasury Department.

The negotiations over raising the debt limit are often contentious, with both parties trying to gain advantage by attaching their own policy objectives.

The Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) predicts that the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" will sustain the U.S. until mid-June or before, allowing Congress six months to take action.