If 2024 triggers contingent elections, what are they and what can be expected?

Should people prepare for contingencies since the pundits predict the presidential election will be close?

What’s that?

Only three times in U.S. history has there been a contingent election: in 1801 to choose President Thomas Jefferson, in 1825 to select President John Quincy Adams, and in 1837 to elect Vice President Richard Mentor Johnson.

In a contingent election, the President is chosen by the House while the Vice President is selected by the Senate.

Could a complicated Electoral College tabulation lead to a contingent election?

There are other scenarios to get you to an Electoral College tie.

On January 6th, the House and Senate will meet in a Joint Session of Congress to certify the Electoral College. In 2021, Republicans challenged electoral votes from six states, leading to disputes and a potential failure to certify a winner. If there are disagreements over electoral votes, it's possible that no candidate will reach the required 270 votes.

The House of Representatives will choose the President, while the Senate will elect the Vice President in a contingent election.

Here’s the fascinating part.

Although each state has its own delegation, they all have an equal say in a contingent election, meaning California's 52-member delegation, consisting of 40 Democrats, holds the same weight as South Dakota's single Republican delegate.

The breakdown of each Congressional delegation for the contingent election next year is not yet known, as we only have the information for this Congress. The new Congress will not be sworn in until January 3, 2025.

An analysis is provided on the current position of each state delegation and their potential position in January.

What will the House look like next year? Even if Democrats win the most seats, the GOP may still maintain control due to the map's favorability. However, nothing is certain.

Let's examine the state delegations that may change direction in 2025 and their potential impact on a contingent election.

In 2022, Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won a special election to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, who had represented the state for 49 years. Peltola is now facing off against Young's grandson, Republican Nick Begich Jr., in the upcoming election. Additionally, John Wayne Howe and Eric Hafner are also running for the seat.

To secure a potential contingent election, Democrats need Peltola to win. Trump won Alaska in 2020 with 61 percent of the vote.

In Arizona, Democrats have struggled to gain traction in the state's Congressional delegation, making it a case study for the challenges they face in flipping delegations.

Arizona is a swing state at the presidential level, with two Republicans at risk. Rep. Dave Schweikert, R-Ariz., won a narrow victory two years ago, while Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., represents a battleground district. Despite this, Republicans currently hold a 6-3 advantage over Democrats in the House delegation. However, Democrats have an outside chance of moving the delegation to 5-4 in their favor if they manage to knock off two incumbents. This is a risky proposition.

To maintain the Democrats' 5-3 advantage in Colorado's House districts and avoid a 4-4 tie, freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., must win re-election. Caraveo won her first term with less than 50 percent of the vote in 2022.

Maine's electoral vote is awarded proportionally, with Golden being one of the most moderate Democrats in the House. However, Maine only has two House seats, and Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, holds the other one. Pingree is expected to win this fall, but if Golden loses, Maine's delegation will be tied. In a contingent election, the outcome of how that delegation votes is uncertain. A tie effectively cancels out that state's vote on the House floor.

In the 1801 election, the House of Representatives was evenly divided between Vermont and Maryland. It took 36 ballots to elect Thomas Jefferson, with Maryland's House delegation initially deadlocked at 4-4. However, on the 36th ballot, four of Maryland's House members abstained, allowing Jefferson to win the election.

Keeping an eye on Nevada is crucial at the presidential level. Democrats have a 3-1 House advantage in this key state. If Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., loses, the delegation will be tied 2-2, taking away the Democrats' advantage.

Minnesota has a 4-4 tie in its delegation, and Democrats' best chance of winning is to maintain the tie and invalidate the state's vote in a contingent election. Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., has a history of winning with narrow margins. If Craig loses, the Minnesota delegation will shift to a 5-3 Republican advantage.

Now, buckle in. North Carolina is where things get intriguing.

North Carolina has 14 House members, with 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans. However, due to redistricting, the Republicans may gain seats in the House delegation next year. If the House decides the presidency in a contingent election, North Carolina could favor the GOP with a potential outcome of 10-4 or 11-3.

But here’s the rub:

If Harris wins all 16 of North Carolina's electoral votes, but there is still a contingent election in the House because no candidate reached 270, what will the North Carolina House delegation do in a contingent election on the House floor? Will they vote for former President Trump, despite the fact that the state is now leaning heavily toward the GOP, or will they cast their ballots for Harris, expressing the will of the voters in their state?

House members are not obligated to align their votes with the popular vote or Electoral College results in their states. They have the freedom to vote according to their own preferences.

Georgia is highly competitive at the presidential level, but Republicans lead 9-5 in the House delegation. Despite this, the delegation is not on the edge. If Harris wins Georgia, how would the delegation vote in a contingent election?

Pennsylvania is similar to North Carolina in that it is a battleground state this fall. Democrats have a slim 9-8 advantage in its House delegation, but this is not a certainty. Several districts, including those represented by Chris Deluzio, Susan Wild, and Matt Cartwright, are competitive. On the Republican side, Brian Fitzpatrick's district could also be in play. Regardless of the outcome at the top of the ticket, Pennsylvania is challenging for Democrats to hold onto their House seats.

The challenge for Democrats in Michigan is nearly identical to Pennsylvania. Michigan is a crucial state for both Harris and the former President. Democrats have a slim 7-6 edge in the House delegation. They are defending the seat of Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who is now running for Senate. Slotkin typically won her seat with a little more than 50 percent of the vote. However, Democrats must also maintain the seats of retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., and Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Mich. Additionally, Democrats aim to flip the district currently held by Rep. John James, R-Mich., who narrowly won in 2022.

In 2024, Virginia is the last state delegation that is truly in play. Although there is a possibility that Virginia's 13 electoral votes could be up for grabs in the presidential election, this is not guaranteed. Currently, Democrats hold a 6-5 edge in the House delegation.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., and Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va., are both retiring from their seats in Congress. Spanberger, a centrist Democrat, flipped a competitive district in 2018, while Wexton stepped down for health reasons. Wexton's race was closer than expected in 2022, but Democrats hope to pick up a seat won by Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., with 51 percent of the vote.

In a contingent election, the best Democrats can achieve is to maintain a tie in Minnesota and hold onto battleground states like Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. They must also avoid ties in Nevada, Colorado, and Maine. Currently, there are no chances for Democratic delegation pickups. It comes down to defending five close states at the delegation level, avoiding ties in three states, and keeping things the same in Minnesota. Despite this, Republicans are likely to seize the delegation in North Carolina.

If North Carolina goes the way we anticipate, Democrats may only control 22 delegations in January 2025, compared to 27 held by Republicans.

Democrats may lose seats in presidential battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Peltola could lose in Alaska. It's possible that Republicans could control nearly 30 state delegations while Democrats could hover around 20.

If the House decides to pitch the election for President, it doesn't look good for Harris.

The election of 1825 resulted in the House choosing President John Quincy Adams, the son of a defeated candidate in the 1800 election, despite Andrew Jackson receiving the most electoral votes needed to win. This outcome suggests that a contingent election may not accurately reflect the electoral vote.

The archaic exercise in Congress has not been used for nearly two centuries, and as a result, no one knows how it will work.