House Republicans' small majority could make attendance a priority: Present and Accounted For

It’s long been said that Congress is a lot like school.

What’s the first thing they do in school? Take attendance.

That is one thing which they usually don’t do in Congress.

But they might next year.

Determining who is present and accounted for and who is absent will be one of the most dramatic daily occurrences on Capitol Hill.

It is always about the math on Capitol Hill.

But the 119th Congress will really be about the math.

The daily events in the House will depend on who is sick, has a parent/teacher conference, had a delayed plane due to snow, is not trustworthy, was unable to attend a speech due to traffic, has a child starring in a school play, or has experienced a family loss.

The GOP's minuscule majority could temper President Trump and House Republicans' big plans for their 2025 legislative agenda.

It will be interesting to see what Republicans can execute.

The GOP will have a 219-215 majority in the House, with one vacancy left by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who resigned. This means that the GOP can only tolerate one Republican defector on each roll call vote without needing help from the other side. If there are two Republican rebels, it will result in a 217-217 tie, which will be lost by rule in the House.

The start of the new Congress on January 3 could mark the beginning of the Halycon days for the House Republican Conference.

In January, Reps. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz plan to resign from Congress to join the Trump Administration. Stefanik is seeking confirmation for the position of United Nations Ambassador, while Waltz has been appointed as National Security Advisor, a role that does not require Senate confirmation. As a result, the Republican majority will decrease to 217-215, making it impossible for them to lose any votes in order to pass their agenda.

House Republicans face challenges in maintaining unity, with defectors ranging from keeping the government open to impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could also affect House Speaker Mike Johnson's ability to secure an outright majority and become Speaker. Despite having a cushion when the new Congress starts, Johnson must still navigate the political PTSD left over from the 15-round election of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

A special election will be held to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik, and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already announced a special election for the Gaetz seat, which will take place in April.

You can’t make this stuff up.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) may delay a special election in Stefanik's seat until May based on her discretion and New York law, as the other special elections are still months away and Stefanik and Waltz have not resigned yet.

Even though these are "Republican" seats, there's no guarantee that Republicans will automatically win in special elections.

If the plan goes smoothly, Republicans will regain their seats with a 220-215 majority in a few months, allowing them to lose up to two votes on significant issues.

But there are always absences. Always resignations.

And this isn’t limited to the Republican side of the aisle.

Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, has faced criticism over his health and attendance, with concerns about his lack of public appearances and interviews.

Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., who is 76 years old, is the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva has announced that this term will be his last after being diagnosed with cancer. The illness caused him to miss more than 300 roll call votes on the floor between February and this fall and he did not conduct any interviews.

Sheila Jackson Lee, Bill Pascrell, and Donald Payne Jr., all served as representatives in Congress when they passed away in 2023. Dianne Feinstein, a senator from California, died in 2023.

Democrats must have full attendance to oppose Republicans and make life difficult for the majority, but they can only do so if they consistently attend.

In January and October of last year, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had the support of every House Democrat on each roll call for Speaker, except for Rep. David Trone, D-Md., who missed a couple of votes due to a surgical procedure. However, Trone later returned to Capitol Hill that evening to cast his vote.

In February, Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized but later returned to the Capitol in a wheelchair to vote against the initial effort to impeach Mayorkas. Despite having three defectors on their side, the GOP effort failed on the floor due to Green's vote, which was cast fresh from a hospital gurney.

The GOP faced a challenge with the health of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La, who was diagnosed with cancer and out of the House for the first part of 2023. However, Scalise has now recovered, which has allowed the GOP to be more effective on big votes, such as the initial Mayorkas impeachment.

Unfortunately, it is inevitable that there will be absences due to health and, in some cases, death. Rarely does a Congress pass without the death of a lawmaker, as was the case with Late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides who died in a traffic accident during the summer of 2022.

Check the weather forecast and flight schedule at Reagan National Airport, and use Waze if flying into Dulles. Keep an eye on Congress for any flu or COVID outbreaks.

In Congress, it is crucial to determine whether someone supports or opposes a bill or amendment. However, what is equally important is their attendance.