Election Night: A User's Guide to Key House Races

Understanding which party will control the House is different from predicting which states will determine Senate control. Battlegrounds in Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will decide Senate control, but the House outcome is a separate matter.

The path to power isn’t direct in the House.

The House majority could be determined by a collection of districts that span from northern Maine to the Arctic region in Alaska.

On election night, I can decode the signs to determine which party will hold the majority in the House in 2025.

It’s about the math.

Let’s begin with the current breakdown in the House.

Currently, there are 432 members in the House, with 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There are three vacancies to be filled.

The House would have a seven-seat Republican majority if it were at full membership with 435 seats. However, Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to capture control. Some districts have changed due to redistricting, with Republicans potentially gaining several seats in North Carolina alone.

Democrats must maintain their current seats and gain a few more while offsetting potential losses in North Carolina. This summary gives a general idea of the night's outcome.

The 2nd District of Maine's early race could provide a hint about the House's direction.

In the upcoming election, Rep. Jared Golden, a moderate Democrat from Maine, will face off against his Republican challenger, Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver. This district, located in the north of Maine and extending to the Canadian border, is known for its rugged terrain and rural lifestyle. Despite being a Democrat in a predominantly Republican state, Golden has proven to be a vulnerable member of the House. In the 2020 election, former President Trump won the district's sole electoral vote by carrying Maine. Maine uses a proportional system to divide its electoral votes.

If Golden wins the seat, it could indicate that Democrats are doing well. However, if Theriault wins, it might suggest that the House could shift in the other direction.

Despite the fact that the former chairman of the Democrats' reelection efforts in New York two years ago, former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, hailed from the state, political analysts believe that Democrats lost the House in New York in 2022. Additionally, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is from Brooklyn, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is also from the state.

If Democrats excel in House races this year, they can make considerable gains in New York. The upcoming presidential election may also boost their performance. Although they have already reclaimed the seat of former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., Democrats are aiming to defeat freshman Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., and Nick LaLota, R-N.Y. A successful early sweep on November 5 will signal that Democrats are performing well. They will be disappointed if they don't capture at least three of these seats.

Both parties have pickup opportunities in Virginia, and a sweep by either side could reveal the overall direction of the night.

In the Tidewater area, Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., will face Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal. Meanwhile, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is retiring to run for governor next year. To succeed Spanberger, Democrat Eugene Vindman will face Republican Derrick Anderson. If the parties split these races, Virginia could become a wash.

In Ohio, veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio and freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-Ohio, are both defending battleground districts in a state that should overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump. The fact that Republican Vice Presidential nominee and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, comes from the Buckeye State could influence voter turnout. If Republicans are able to defeat either Kaptur or Sykes, it could be a boon for them. However, Kaptur is the longest-tenured woman in House history, and Republicans have been trying to defeat her for years. It's far from clear that they can do so this year.

Democrats have a chance to win a redrawn seat in Alabama, as a federal court ruled that the state violated the Voting Rights Act by packing Black voters into a single majority Black district. The court ordered Alabama to redraw its Congressional maps, making the once-Republican district now favoring Democrats. Shomari Figures aims to capture that district for the Democrats.

In Iowa, Democrats are targeting two seats, with a slim chance of victory. One seat features a matchup between Democrat Lanon Baccam and Republican Zach Nunn. Democrats also hope to unseat sophomore Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, who won by just six votes in 2020 but by seven points in 2022. Democrats believe they have a strong chance of defeating Miller-Meeks with Christina Bohannan, who they believe has a bona fide shot at toppling her.

In Colorado, Rep. Yadira Caraveo D-Colo. won her first term with a margin of approximately 2,000 votes. Now, she faces Republican challenger Gabe Evans. However, it is believed that a strong performance by the Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket in blue Colorado could aid Caraveo's re-election efforts.

In New Mexico, the rematch between Freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M. and former Rep. Yvette Harrell, R-N.M. is taking place in a swing district that bears watching. This district was flipped by former Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, D-N.M. in 2018 after former Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., ran for governor. Harrell then defeated Torres Small in 2020. However, Vasquez flipped the district back to the Democrats in 2022. Harrell hopes to return the favor this fall.

In addition to New York, California is another state where Democrats aim to gain substantial ground. It's advantageous that the Democratic presidential nominee once represented California in the Senate and served as its attorney general. Furthermore, a Senate race could increase Democratic voter turnout. Congressman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., is running against former Major League Baseball players Steve Garvey of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.

Democrats aim to defeat Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel, all of whom represent battleground districts in California. Despite winning his race in an upset last cycle by fewer than 600 votes, Duarte was unseated by Democrats in 2018. However, Valadao returned to Congress in 2020.

The outcome of the election could be determined by the results of three other races.

In the upcoming election, Democrat Janelle Bynum faces off against Freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer, R-Ore. Bynum has previously defeated Chavez-Deremer in statehouse contests. If Chavez-Deremer manages to hold on, it could be seen as a positive sign for the GOP.

In the upcoming election, Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., and her Republican opponent Joe Kent will face off again. Despite the district previously being Republican, Kent's support for former President Trump and pro-MAGA forces may have contributed to his defeat in the last election cycle. This race could serve as a bellwether for the effectiveness of the MAGA message.

Finally, control of the House could hinge on Alaska.

Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, won the at-large seat after the death of Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, in 2022. Young represented the state in the House for nearly half a century. However, Peltola has never been on the ballot at the same time as former President Trump, who defeated President Biden by ten points in the state in 2020.

If Peltola wins, her victory on GOP-friendly ground could significantly boost Democrats' chances of taking control of the House.

Due to the close races, it may be challenging to determine which party controls the House for an extended period. In the past, it took until mid-November to determine the outcome.