As Trump prepares to sweep the South Carolina primary, Haley could put up a fight.
The last major early state to select a Republican presidential nominee before Super Tuesday is holding its primary on Saturday.
Today in South Carolina, the last of the major early states, voters are choosing a Republican nominee for president before Super Tuesday.
While former President Donald Trump continues to maintain a commanding polling lead, former Governor Nikki Haley aims to prove her viability as a candidate with a competitive performance.
To clear the bar, she must win in Charleston and Richland, while Trump aims to sweep the remaining states.
Greenville and Spartanburg are battlegrounds to watch
In upstate South Carolina, Greenville and Spartanburg together account for approximately 16% of the state's registered voter population.
These two counties, like the overall region, are predominantly White and evangelical.
In South Carolina, the latest polling indicates that voters will favor Trump by wide margins, as seen in Iowa.
In the 2016 presidential race, Trump faced significant opposition from Cruz and Rubio in South Carolina.
In Greenville, both candidates received 24.5% of the vote each, with Trump ultimately winning with 26.7%.
In Spartanburg, Trump won with 32.6%, while Cruz received 24.5% and Rubio got 22.9%.
Recent polling and primaries indicate that many Cruz supporters have shifted their allegiance to Trump.
To secure victory in the state, Trump will aim to obtain a similar percentage of the vote in the upstate region as he and Cruz did in 2016. In order to meet polling expectations and maintain an even playing field, he will need to achieve a range of 65-75%.
It seems unlikely that Haley, with his evangelical approach, will be very competitive in this context.
Haley is more likely to receive support in Charleston and Richland compared to other regions of the state.
In line with her strategy in New Hampshire, Haley will target urban and suburban areas with high population density.
The top two cities in terms of statewide vote are Charleston and Richland, accounting for approximately 16% of the total vote.
The city of Charleston, located in Charleston County, is the most populated city in South Carolina. Columbia, the capital of South Carolina and home to the University of South Carolina, is located in Richland County.
In 2016, Rubio won only in these counties.
Haley's key constituencies are the affluent areas of the state with a higher percentage of college-educated voters.
In these cities, Haley is running behind Trump in polls but still competitive. To win the race, Haley must improve her performance.
The more Haley performs well in these areas, the higher the likelihood that Haley will secure at least some delegates from South Carolina. This is because, in addition to the 29 statewide delegates, the state assigns three delegates to the winner of the vote in each of its seven congressional districts.
Trump continues to dominate in rural areas
In the 2016 Republican primary, some of Trump's strongest showings occurred in tiny, rural areas.
In 13 counties with populations under 50,000, he obtained more than 40% of the vote.
In central South Carolina's Lee County, Trump won 47% of the vote, defeating Cruz by 25 points. The county's population is approximately 16,000 people and declining.
Allendale County, with a population of less than 8,000, is located in South Carolina. Trump received 44% of the vote there, beating the second place candidate, Rubio, by 19 points. However, the county's population is declining.
In 27 counties, he obtained between 30% and 40% of the vote, with roughly half of these counties having populations under 50,000.
At the time when Trump had not yet convinced his base of his conservative credentials, he was competing in a race with two other well-known contenders.
Rural areas in South Carolina collectively have a significant impact on the statewide vote.
Trump will strive to maximize the number of votes to secure victory.
Special coverage begins at 7PM ET on Planet Chronicle Channel
In South Carolina, polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and it is expected that the early vote will be reported first in most areas, with Haley likely receiving the most support.
Planet Chronicle Channel has special coverage starting at 7 PM, hosted by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
The Planet Chronicle Voter Analysis and Decision Desk will determine the outcome of the race.
Politics
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