A 'unique situation' for the House of Representatives elections in 2024

The battle for House control is intense, with both parties fighting fiercely for dominance. The political landscape is a tumultuous game of back-and-forth, making it challenging to predict the outcome.

While Republicans are predicted to win the Senate, many competitive races are very close, including in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Texas is also now considered a toss-up, and some observers believe Florida could go either way. Montana appears to be slipping away from Democrats, while Arizona seems to be in their favor. However, if former President Trump wins Arizona, Republicans could secure a Senate majority with a slim 53 or 54 seats, even if all races are decided by just a percentage point or two.

If President Biden had not withdrawn from his reelection bid in mid-July, the control of the House and Senate could have been very different.

On July 21, the President announced his decision to resign, stating that it was in the best interest of his party and the country.

House and Senate Democrats breathed a collective sigh of relief.

Despite some private fears, many people were hesitant to admit that Mr. Biden had lost some ground during the late June debate with former President Trump. He seemed tired and incoherent at times. Few were enthusiastic about his candidacy, and they worried that another Biden campaign would drain all excitement from the Democratic side. The fear was that President Biden's re-election bid would have a negative impact on down ballot races.

Competitive Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio? Probably down the drain.

In 2022, the GOP is predicted to gain several dozen seats, according to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. However, McCarthy may have been two years off in his prediction. The presence of Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket could have led to a significant impact on House contests.

Now, the House is anybody’s ballgame.

In mid-July, Biden campaign officials met with House Democrats at the Democratic National Committee. Some senior House Democrats, including Rep. Jim Clyburn, declared their support for Biden as they entered the meeting. However, the ground was already shifting.

Pelosi, a former House Speaker, urged concerned Democrats to speak out about the political catastrophe that could await Democrats if Biden didn't step aside. A groundswell of Congressional Democrats began to demand the President bow out without Pelosi publicly calling on him to do so.

On a hot summer afternoon in July, a group of Biden advisers met with struggling Senate Democrats at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) to discuss the upcoming election. Despite the heat, many of the attendees made a point to avoid the press, with some even having drivers take them several hundred yards from the Senate wing of the Capitol to the DSCC across the street. The fact that they were so determined to avoid the press spoke volumes about their concerns regarding President Biden's decision to remain in the race.

Schumer visited with Biden in Delaware before the assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania. However, Schumer feared a GOP blowout if Biden stayed.

The former Speaker's subtlety was described by someone close to her as "You will be bleeding out and never even realize you've been cut."

When Pelosi served as Speaker, allies and foes alike always wondered in awe how she managed to get the votes. Helping orchestrate the inevitable exit of President Biden from the presidential sweepstakes was no different.

Pelosi was able to persuade House Democrats to support a given issue by gingerly prodding them, even though the constituents in their districts initially opposed it. This allowed Members to vote yes without facing backlash from their base.

The same tactic was used to persuade Mr. Biden to withdraw after a few weeks of secret negotiations. The President realized he had no choice but to resign or risk losing. Congressional Democrats would accept their fate if he did.

The quick pivot to Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee was in the interest of efficiency after President Biden stepped aside.

Immediately after handing over the keys to Harris, congressional Democrats and the base experienced a surge of energy, which revitalized the party and made it possible for Democrats to regain momentum under President Biden.

The Republicans have a strong chance of winning the Senate on Tuesday night. However, if Mr. Biden had remained at the top of the ticket, Democrats faced a tidal wave. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., appears to be on the ropes. There are tight races involving Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Bob Casey, D-Penn. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is in a dogfight in Michigan with former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for the seat of retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich. Even Rep. Colin Allred, D-Tex., has a puncher’s chance in his Senate race with Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex. It’s conceivable that Democrats may have lost most or all of those races had President Biden remained on the ballot. However, because of the president’s decision, Democrats are now competitive in all of those and may win a few – even if they lose control of the Senate.

In the House, the situation is tight. While Republicans may maintain their slim majority or even gain more seats in a favorable outcome, Democrats have a strong chance to make gains in every contested district. This would not have been possible had the President remained in office.

The seismic decision by President Biden to quit in July may have increased the chances of Democrats maintaining the White House. However, the true benefit of the president's decision may be realized on Capitol Hill by preventing an embarrassing blowout.