A Republican in a toss-up district in New York is gaining ground in a crucial race that will decide the control of the House.

Despite an October scandal, Mike Lawler, a Republican, garnered significant backing.

A Republican in a toss-up district in New York is gaining ground in a crucial race that will decide the control of the House.
A Republican in a toss-up district in New York is gaining ground in a crucial race that will decide the control of the House.

A new poll shows that a Republican congressman from New York has a surprising lead over his progressive opponent.

A poll conducted by PIX11, The Hill, and Emerson College shows that Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., leads former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones by 49%-44% in New York's 17th congressional district, with the election taking place on November 5th.

The survey published on Tuesday was conducted from October 24th to October 26th and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Emerson College reports that the data was collected through cell phone surveys.

According to a recent poll by Emerson College, Lawler experienced a four-point increase in support, while Jones maintained a slim lead with 44% of voters' support.

Mike Lawler and Mondaire Jones
Rep. Mike Lawler's race against former Rep. Mondaire Jones is expected to be one of the closest in the country. (Getty Images)

A poll revealed that 52% of voters hold a positive opinion of Lawler, while 44% of voters have a positive opinion of Jones.

Despite the district's blue lean in presidential election polls, the survey revealed that 50% of voters support President Kamala Harris and 47% support former President Donald Trump.

The economy is the top issue for voters in the 17th district, with 30% of respondents citing it as their top concern, followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (15%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%), according to the findings.

"In the 17th district, 50% of voters report being worse off financially today compared to a year ago, while 32% say they are roughly the same, and 18% report being better off."

Lawler on Capitol Hill
UNITED STATES - JUNE 4: Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., talks with reporters after a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 4, 2024.  (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Emerson College Polling's executive director, Spencer Kimball, stated that the latest research reveals a substantial gender gap among voters.

"In the 17th district, men support Lawler by 27 points, while women support Jones by 16 points. In contrast, men in the 18th district are more divided, with 47% supporting Esposito and 46% supporting Ryan. Women in the 18th district break for Ryan by 20 points."

In October 2006, Lawler dressed as Michael Jackson and was later accused of blackface. He apologized for causing offense, stating that his costume was meant to be complimentary.

Mondaire Jones
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones is now polling lower than his opponent. (Getty Images)

Planet Chronicle Digital reached out to the Lawler and Jones campaigns for comments.

by Andrea Margolis

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