A possible second withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty under Trump may differ from the initial US departure.

When President-elect Donald Trump takes office, he may withdraw the U.S. from a global climate change agreement, but a subsequent withdrawal could be distinct from the initial one.

Nearly 195 countries signed the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, which was established as a legally binding treaty at the U.N. Climate Change Conference. The U.S. joined the agreement under former President Barack Obama in 2016.

According to Article 28 of the treaty, parties can withdraw from the agreement, but they must wait three years after officially joining. As a result, Trump was unable to leave the treaty immediately upon taking office, and the U.S. did not officially withdraw until the end of 2020.

In his first order as president, Joe Biden reinstated the US into the climate agreement in 2021. Prior to the election, Trump stated that he would support withdrawing from the treaty again. Since Biden withdrew at the start of his term, this could be accomplished at a faster pace.

David Waskow, director of the international climate initiative at the World Resources Institute, stated to Scientific American that the timeline would be vastly different now.

A loss of trust among world leaders could result from re-exiting the agreement, according to Max Boykoff, professor in the Department of Environmental Studies and a fellow in the Cooperative Institute for Research and Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at CU Boulder, who spoke to the university's paper.

Javier Milei, Argentina's Libertarian President, is considering withdrawing from the treaty, which could inspire other countries to follow suit, as suggested by Boykoff.

Other leaders who have resisted prioritizing climate policy in their own countries may also withdraw from the agreement, as predicted by Boykoff, according to CU Boulder Today.

Those who support Trump withdrawing the U.S. from the agreement argue that there would be numerous advantages to doing so, according to Planet Chronicle Digital.

According to H. Sterling Burnett, Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at the Heartland Institute, there are numerous advantages to leaving the Paris climate agreement, including regaining U.S. sovereignty while adhering to the rule of law.

"Paris urged the U.S. to agree to emission reductions that are not necessary from a climate perspective, but which impose significant costs on Americans and put the nation at a competitive and geopolitical disadvantage to China, which emits more than double the U.S. without any firm reduction commitments," he said.

Burnett proposed that Trump present the treaty to the Senate for approval, necessitating a two-thirds vote for the U.S. to rejoin the climate agreement, potentially impeding future administrations' efforts to reenter the accord.

Will the incoming president withdraw from the UNFCCC, a 1992 treaty aimed at preventing dangerous human interference with the climate system?

POLITICO E&E Reported that Mandy Gunasekara, former EPA chief of staff during Trump's first term, advised the incoming president to not only withdraw from the treaty but also exit UNFCCC.

Gunasekara suggested that the administration should withdraw from UNFCCC if they are seeking a more enduring solution to combating unfavorable economic agreements that have minimal impact on the environment.

If the U.S. is not involved in the Paris Agreement, other leaders have suggested that the agreement may suffer in the future.

"The Paris Agreement can endure, but individuals may sometimes lose vital organs or limbs and still survive. However, we do not want a crippled Paris Agreement. We want a genuine Paris Agreement. According to António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, it is crucial that the United States remain in the Paris Agreement and adopt policies that will make the 1.5 degrees objective still attainable."