A large study has found that superbugs resulting from antibiotic resistance could lead to the deaths of approximately 39 million individuals by the year 2050.

Since 1990, one million deaths worldwide have resulted annually from resistance to antibiotics, totaling 36 million.

By 2050, it is predicted that there will be more than 39 million additional deaths, occurring at a rate of three per minute.

A study led by the GRAM Project, a partnership between the University of Oxford and the IHME at the University of Washington, found that antibiotic resistance is a growing problem worldwide.

According to a GRAM press release, the researchers made future estimates for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes across 204 countries and territories after analyzing 520 million health records.

Findings from the study were published in The Lancet on Monday.

What is antimicrobial resistance?

Superbugs arise when bacteria and other germs develop resistance to the medications used to treat them, resulting in antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

The CDC states that infections can be challenging or impossible to treat.

Modern medicine has enabled us to carry out organ transplants, intricate surgical operations, and provide intensive care to extremely premature infants, according to Jasmine Riviere Marcelin, MD, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and an infectious diseases professor at the University of Nebraska, who was not involved in the study.

"The success of these interventions is due to antibiotics enabling us to prevent and treat infections in critically ill patients."

She cautioned that antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a "significant health risk" because they hinder the ability to treat or prevent infections.

Marcelin added, "Our progress in medicine could be jeopardized, and we might return to the pre-antibiotic era, where fatalities from basic skin/soft tissue infections were substantial."

"We may find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era."

Dr. Maureen Tierney, associate dean of clinical research and public health at Creighton University School of Medicine in Omaha, Nebraska, affirmed that the study is the most comprehensive effort to determine the impact of antimicrobial resistance on disability and death.

She informed Planet Chronicle Digital that this was a massive undertaking that required utilizing a variety of data sources from various countries worldwide to determine the number of deaths resulting from antibiotic-resistant microorganisms.

Marking key shifts

Since 1990, the most significant increase in infection was due to MRSA (methicillin-resistant S. aureus), a type of staph bacteria that is now resistant to certain antibiotics.

The study found that the number of annual deaths related to MRSA increased from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021.

Although the overall number of deaths related to AMR increased, the number of deaths among children under the age of 5 decreased by half between 1990 and 2021.

This was linked to increased childhood vaccination programs and greater availability of drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene practices.

The most significant rise in AMR deaths occurred among adults aged 70 and above, with an over 80% increase.

The press release stated that researchers anticipate these trends to persist in the upcoming decades, with the number of AMR deaths among children under 5 projected to decrease by half globally by 2050, while the number of deaths among people aged 70 and above is expected to more than double.

The regions with the highest increase in deaths geographically are western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

Combating antimicrobial resistance

In the upcoming week, the UN General Assembly in New York will host a meeting of global health leaders to discuss novel approaches to combating AMR.

The release stated that potential interventions include infection prevention and control measures, such as new vaccines and antimicrobials, and improved access to water and sanitation, as well as deeper investments across health systems in diagnostics, training, and new technologies.

According to Tierney from Creighton University, the most crucial methods for reducing antibiotic resistance include vaccinations for pneumonia, influenza, COVID, measles, and other illnesses.

Tierney advocates for the responsible use of antibiotics in humans, animals, and agriculture, as well as infection prevention measures, particularly in healthcare settings, and the creation of new antibiotics.

"Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we must all protect."

Marcelin cautioned that relying solely on drug discovery to combat AMR is "futile" due to the lengthy process of developing, testing, and approving new medications.

No single antibiotic candidate has activity against bacteria resistant to all currently available drugs, and the number of new or repurposed antibiotics in late-stage clinical development is very small, she said.

"By controlling the spread of resistant organisms, we can combat resistance even if we cannot easily create new drugs, which is the principle of infection control."

Marcelin agrees that antibiotics should be prescribed and used only when necessary, for the optimal duration, and at the appropriate timing and dosing regimen to prevent resistance.

"We must protect antibiotics as a shared natural resource to continue making medical advances and reducing mortality from bacterial infections," she added.

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Planet Chronicle Digital reached out to GRAM researchers requesting comment.