US wargamers claim that China aims to reduce Taiwan's dependence on the economy and cyber operations through covert means.

In the coming years, the PRC will employ "gray zone" tactics and an "anaconda" strategy to gradually suffocate Taiwan, with the ultimate goal of forcing Taipei to submit to Beijing without resorting to drastic measures such as an invasion.

Beijing will intensify its attempts to undermine the economy of the island by attacking vital industries and infrastructure and increasing secret cyberattacks, allowing China to maintain a level of deniability.

In early August, a U.S. wargame team from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) visited Taiwan to conduct the first-ever tabletop exercise focusing on economic and cybercoercion from China against Taiwan. The FDD team highlighted that the cost of launching a cyberattack is significantly lower than the cost of defending against it, resulting in an asymmetry that allows China to exert considerable pressure on Taiwan without triggering a direct U.S. military response.

Experts concur that Taiwan faces challenges in safeguarding against cyberattacks and propaganda, particularly as AI technology complicates the concept of "truth."

A Taiwanese TV series depicting a PLA attack on Taiwan has shocked viewers with its use of deep fake videos and cyberattacks that control electronic billboards with false information.

RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, the FDD's senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, participated in the Taiwan wargames. In a media interview following his return to the United States, he stated that Taiwan faces challenges with economic continuity. "What are the solutions to maintaining operations during a series of interconnected critical infrastructure failures, particularly when electrical power impacts financial services?"

Dean Karalekas, author of "Civil-Military Relations in Taiwan: Identity and Transformation," stated to Planet Chronicle Digital that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has served as a wake-up call for Taiwanese preparedness. According to Karalekas, the invasion has made many Taiwanese people realize the possibility of a Chinese President Xi Jinping following in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin and annexing the island. As a result, the Taiwanese have taken it upon themselves to train in preparation. Karalekas was not involved in the tabletop exercise.

Karalekas and other experts believe that the skills being developed in Taiwan are aimed at surviving kinetic combat, which is unlikely. Instead, they think that China is more likely to begin with a blockade and deprive the Taiwanese of essential imports to weaken their economy and way of life. While no one can predict Xi's thoughts, this seems more probable and successful than an all-out invasion.

The U.S.-Taiwan Partnership: A Crucial Factor

Both Taipei and Washington agree that the U.S. political parties are dedicated to defending Taiwan, which serves as the greatest obstacle to China. Nonetheless, there is a consensus that improvements can be made, particularly in the areas of military hardware and software procurement.

Taiwan's limited defense budget restricts its ability to purchase equipment from the U.S. However, experts suggest that incorporating smaller, innovative companies into the list of military suppliers could enable Taiwan to obtain necessary tools for asymmetric defense at a faster and potentially cheaper rate.

The Taiwan Strait, which separates China from Taiwan, is approximately 100 miles wide, and according to Matt Pottinger's book "The Boiling Moat," Taiwan and its primary ally, the United States, should explore new and creative ways to make the Taiwan Strait a deadly obstacle for any PRC invasion attempt.

It is easy to sink a few submarines, but difficult to destroy thousands of small, "suicide" drone subs that could attack Chinese ships and vessels, sinking them in the shallow Taiwan Strait before they reach the shores of Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Internal Challenges: Reserves and Energy

Experts from the US and Taiwan agree that Taiwan's military reserves need to be reformed as they are currently inadequately trained and equipped. However, building a strong reserve force is challenging and requires a comprehensive plan, substantial financial resources, and political determination.

The FDD team identified Taiwan's dependence on imported LNG as a potential vulnerability. Approximately 40% of Taiwan's power generation is fueled by LNG, and the country has only a reported 10-plus-day inventory. Since Taiwan's LNG must be transported by sea, it is vulnerable to a maritime blockade or "quarantine," regardless of the source, which may be Australia, a U.S. ally, or Qatar, generally seen as more pro-China.

The Democratic Progressive Party, which has governed Taiwan since 2016, has decided not to renew the life of Taiwan's nuclear energy reactors (the last of which will shut down in 2025) and instead committed to investing in wind and solar power. However, according to FDD China Program Director Craig Singelton, who spoke in a previously-mentioned media briefing, green power sources may not be reliable or effective in providing power during a war, as Chinese pilots have been known to use wind turbines for target practice.

The November 2024 Election’s Impact: A Looming Question

The FDD team observed that Taiwanese officials are worried about the possibility of a more transactional approach from a second Trump administration, as the former president had previously stated that Taiwan should "pay us" for defense and that Taiwan "doesn’t give us anything."

Trump often uses exaggerated statements to emphasize his belief that allies, including Taiwan and NATO, should contribute more financially to defense. The U.S. wargame team recommended that Taiwan proactively address Trump's concerns about its defense budget by publicly displaying its past spending while continuing to increase its defense expenditures. This approach would demonstrate the value of a strong U.S.-Taiwan partnership to both the public and Washington.