Trump's election victory emboldens conservatives in Latin America, sending a message to dictators: "there will be consequences."
Some in the region benefit from Trump's policies due to shared political beliefs or economic interests.
The Trump administration's anticipated shifts in U.S. foreign policy have caused apprehension among U.S. foes in Latin America, as they fear these changes may negatively impact their national interests.
Mexico's socialist president appeared to extend an olive branch to the incoming administration over tariffs and migration, seemingly unsettled by Trump's tariff policies just last week.
According to Joseph Humire, Executive Director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, who have an anti-American stance and whose foreign policies align with Russia, China, and Iran, will likely be cautious before taking a more aggressive approach in the region.
The countries that have frequently provoked and destabilized their neighbors, fostered transnational crime and international terrorism, and aligned the region closer to China will be deterred from continuing such actions, as the United States will project strength and adversaries and autocratic countries will know that provoking conflicts or war will have consequences.
Trumpism, as outlined in Humire's paper "The Foreign Policy Foundations of Trumpism," emphasizes the importance of nation-state sovereignty and burden sharing as the key pillars of President Trump's foreign policy. This approach, often referred to as America First, reflects a belief that the United States must prioritize its own strength and security in order to effectively project power abroad. In many ways, this vision reflects a return to the fundamental principles of U.S. foreign policy established by the founding fathers.
"The response to President Trump's win in Latin America is overwhelmingly positive. During my recent visit to Mar-a-Lago, I met with Argentinian President Javier Milei, who was the first foreign leader to meet with President Trump after his victory. This meeting was significant because it marked a new path for right-wing, conservative, and libertarian presidents in Latin America to rise to power and achieve electoral victories."
President Bolsonaro, President Milei, and other right-wing leaders in Latin America are expected to inspire a new wave of political leaders who will align with conservative and libertarian ideologies. These leaders are likely to become front-runners in upcoming elections in Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. The brand of conservatives and right-wing leaders is rapidly growing, and many of these leaders will look to the US for inspiration, with fewer obstacles presented by the Biden-Harris administration.
Mexico is concerned about potential changes in immigration and trade policies due to its extensive economic ties and shared border with the United States. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration is wary of stricter immigration controls and the possibility of renegotiating trade agreements, which could impact Mexico's economy and the well-being of its citizens.
The Colombian government is worried that changes in U.S. drug policy and security cooperation could hinder ongoing peace efforts and drug trafficking combat initiatives.
The "troika of tyranny," consisting of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, can expect increased sanctions and diplomatic pressure under the new administration, as indicated by the appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. This may result in heightened economic and political isolation for these governments.
According to Axel Kaiser, a Chilean economist and Senior Fellow at the Archbridge Institute, Latin America will benefit from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State because he is deeply concerned about the region and is aware of the socialist threat. He will take measures to put pressure on left-wing authoritarian governments or those with left-wing authoritarian projects, such as Mexico, to stay at bay. There may also be hope with Venezuela, and Rubio will do everything possible to ensure a transition to democracy in the country.
Kaiser stated: "The entire region, regardless of whether they are governed by left-wing or right-wing governments, will benefit greatly from the United States' increased collaboration. Trump's victory is particularly significant for Argentina, as the country's financial struggles will be alleviated with the help of the United States, which will positively impact Javier Milei's success and have a ripple effect throughout the region."
Bolsonaro in Brazil is expected to experience a significant recovery, and it is uncertain if he will become the presidential candidate. Trump's victory is beneficial to leaders like Kast and Kaiser in Chile and Dávila in Colombia, as they align with a more conservative government in the U.S. Several leaders could benefit from this alignment, and I believe the United States will support them.
President Javier Milei, who holds a similar stance to Trump's on libertarianism and markets, anticipates strengthening bilateral relations with the US under his leadership. Milei aims to secure additional IMF loans and attract investments to stabilize Argentina's economy and implement capitalist reforms.
A right-leaning Brazilian government may find common ground with the Trump administration on trade and regional security, potentially leading to increased U.S. investments and support for Brazil's initiatives in areas like infrastructure and energy.
Donald Trump's election is crucial for Latin America because he has a team of experts on security, democracy, freedom, and the region's reality. According to Colombian Senator Paola Holguin, Trump will not leave any unfinished business, and authoritarian regimes such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia will no longer have an ally in the US through action or omission.
Holguin, a member of the conservative-leaning Centro Democrático party, stated that it is unlikely that the new White House administration will adjust its agenda and support for Colombia due to poor results in the anti-drug and total peace policy, as well as signs of alignment with the Russia, China, and Iran axis, efforts to enter the BRICS economic bloc, desire to legitimize the narco-dictatorship, and weakness in the face of Maduro's electoral fraud.
Petro and Maduro's conciliatory messages of congratulations to Trump indicate their fear of what is to come and their determination to maintain peace, despite their previous behavior.
The benefits of the new Trump administration for some countries will depend on the specific policies implemented and the dynamics of bilateral relations, according to experts.
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