The failure of the US in gathering intelligence on the Taliban has left Afghanistan vulnerable to the influence of China and Russia.

The intelligence failure prior to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in a chaotic evacuation, the deaths of 13 U.S. service members and 170 Afghans, and the complete Taliban takeover. This failure also created a security vacuum that U.S. adversaries are exploiting.

Anti-Western sentiment has increased in the U.S. and its allies, mainly due to China and Russia's efforts to strengthen their ties in response to Washington's stance on Moscow's war in Ukraine and Beijing's assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

As the U.S. moves away from its long-standing War on Terror, China and Russia are gaining more power in South Asia and the Middle East.

"Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on security issues in the Middle East and South Asia, stated to Planet Chronicle Digital that when we turn our back on Afghanistan and simply want to close the door and move on, we are leaving a vacuum there. Someone else will fill it."

Some countries, including the U.S.'s top adversaries, have established diplomatic relations with the extremist Taliban group, despite no nation officially recognizing them as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

Beijing and Moscow have indicated that they are interested in using the region for their strategic objectives by suggesting that the Taliban should not be excluded from the international community and that Moscow is considering removing the Taliban from its terrorist list, respectively.

The Taliban's opposition to Western ideology benefits Russia in spreading anti-American sentiment, while Moscow seeks to expand trade with Afghanistan and other nations in the region to ease economic pressure caused by Western sanctions.

While sanctions are not the only driving force behind increasing trade in South Asia.

Beijing is reportedly providing the Taliban with drones, which could hinder the U.S.'s "over-the-horizon" strategy in Afghanistan.

Rubin explained that the U.S.'s failure to predict the Taliban takeover was not only an intelligence failure but also a reflection of a larger issue in comprehending adversarial threats. Additionally, he pointed out that the unwillingness to engage with Pakistan realistically was another factor that contributed to this outcome, which he classified as a diplomatic failure rather than an intelligence failure.

According to Rubin, research conducted a decade into the conflict in Afghanistan revealed that 90% of the ammonium nitrate used in Taliban roadside bombs originated from two fertilizer plants in nearby Pakistan.

In 2011, Pakistani authorities stated that they were collaborating with Washington to prevent smuggling efforts, amidst the U.S.'s efforts to stop al Qaeda and Taliban attacks, following the U.S.'s deadliest year in Afghanistan with the loss of nearly 500 American soldiers and over 700 coalition forces.

The assassination of Usama Bin Laden in May 2011 raised doubts about the trustworthiness of the Washington-Islamabad relationship, which persist to this day.

On its border with Afghanistan, Pakistan has been involved in a secret conflict with insurgent groups, while there are allegations that Islamabad has secretly supported the Taliban through covert operations.

The US maintains close ties with Pakistan, despite its ambiguous security position, making it its largest export market and a leading investor in the country. This relationship has not gone unnoticed by China and Russia.

Beijing has also sought to strengthen economic ties with Islamabad through its Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, where Beijing has invested approximately $62 billion.

Despite international pressure to remain cautious about Russia, Pakistan has hinted at the possibility of assisting Moscow in evading Western sanctions by implementing a "barter" trading system, which could strengthen their alliance and put additional strain on the U.S. in a region where it must maintain positive relations.

"Rubin stated that it is incorrect to view Afghanistan in isolation, as it leads to a failure to assess the region's overall security. He emphasized the importance of considering the bigger picture, rather than focusing solely on individual elements."

In 2023, a yearslong investigation revealed that the decline in U.S. intelligence, which occurred during both the Trump and Biden administrations, was caused by Washington's inability to accurately assess the Afghan government's ability to function independently of U.S. support.

""Our intelligence was failing us as the Taliban ran rampant over us, while the Afghans viewed our actions through the lens of survival," Rubin stated."

The fall of Kabul was swift due to the Taliban's advance with local governors and district chiefs for several years prior to the withdrawal, resulting in momentum and defections.

"According to Rubin, families in Afghanistan would often send one son to the Afghan National Security Forces, the army being trained, and the other son to the Taliban. The purpose of this was not to favor one power over the other but to ensure that if a family member was kidnapped at a checkpoint, they would always have someone they could contact to try to secure their release."

The U.S.'s failure to comprehend the experiences of Afghans, who have lived under the shadow of war for over 50 years, including the Soviet-Afghan war, Taliban rule, and the 20-year U.S. War on Terror, has resulted in their inability to trust the Afghan government without U.S. support.

"Rubin stated that, according to Usama Bin Laden, when faced with the option between a powerful steed and a weak pony, it is natural to choose the stronger horse. This is how Afghans typically behave."

The Taliban had been gaining ground in Afghanistan in the year before the withdrawal, as open source intelligence revealed. This has led to questions about why neither the Trump nor the Biden administration adjusted their withdrawal plans.

"Unfortunately, ego often overrides good judgment in Washington policymaking, as Rubin stated. The second issue was simply fatigue, and the belief that supporting the resistance would prolong the two-decade war, the longest in American history."

"It was a persuasive argument," he added.