The attack in Moscow by ISIS-K underscores the escalating danger of terrorism from Afghanistan.

The Afghan chapter of ISIS has been one of the most active post-caliphate branches, responsible for the suicide attack on Kabul airport in August 2021 that killed 13 American service members amid the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Two years after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, the world's attention has been drawn back to Afghanistan.

According to Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, it's no surprise that ISIS-K would target Russia. Stradner explained that Russian actions in Syria and Moscow's ties to Iran are significant factors in ISIS' decision to challenge the Kremlin. In 2015, Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war to support the Assad regime, which was on the brink of collapse. Additionally, Russia's treatment of Muslim minorities in Russia and its brutal wars against Chechnya are long-standing grievances.

Since its formation in 2015, ISIS-K has primarily operated in Afghanistan but has also spread globally, including into Russia's Central Asia region. Although it may share an ideology with the Taliban, ISIS-K poses a significant threat to their rule and foreign interests in Afghanistan by seeking to undermine the regime.

Abrahms stated that many countries are now considering arming relative moderates in Afghanistan and other rebel forces as a way to combat ISIS and other terrorist networks operating in unstable nations with weak governance.

The NRF, which primarily operated in northeastern Afghanistan and concentrated operations in the Panjshir Valley, has recently opened a new front in western Afghanistan and is increasing operations in Herat City. Nazary notes that within the last several weeks, NRF forces executed attacks in Kabul and will be intensifying their efforts starting this spring and summer. These operations, Nazary claims, underscore the increased support for the NRF across Afghanistan, and showcase their strategic capabilities in confronting the Taliban.

Despite their two-year campaign to gain international recognition and support for their efforts to fight the Taliban and ISIS-K, the resistance group has not been successful in achieving their goal. They have not received recognition from another state, lack external financial backing, and have not been endorsed by the U.S.

The NRF is widely respected and has support from many Afghans, but it is still not enough, according to Fatemeh Aman, a non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C.

Aman stated that achieving the goal of liberating Afghanistan through guerrilla warfare alone, without the support of the population, external moral and military assistance, and diplomatic interventions, may be challenging.