Taiwan prepares for new president as China intensifies hostile actions

The People's Republic of China engages in unprecedented actions daily, such as boarding a Taiwanese tourist boat, flying military aircraft near Taiwan, and harassing Taiwanese fishing boats in the South China Sea.

"Dean Karalekas, author of "Civil-Military Relations in Taiwan: Identity and Transformation," states that the unprecedented actions of Beijing are creating a new normal. He explains that Beijing hopes that the West will remain passive and allow them to take over Taiwan, just as they did with the South China Sea using the same tactics known as "salami-slicing.""

Since the visit of former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2023, the world has become more aware of China's hostile actions, but this strategy has been in place for some time.

"According to C. Donovan Smith, a Taipei Times columnist and political commentator, China's plan to normalize military encroachments was planned long before Pelosi's visit. The military exercises were too complex and logistically complicated to have been planned in the short time between the announcement of her trip and her arrival in Taiwan."

In 2023, Beijing intended to use a "quarantine" and "tests" to pressure Taiwanese voters to support politicians and parties more favorable to China. However, as has been the case in the past three elections, Beijing's tactics were unsuccessful. In January, Taiwan elected William Lai, the incumbent vice president, to replace two-term President Tsai Ing-wen, both of whom belong to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The new Taiwan president has promised to maintain the existing policies, but Beijing considers him a "splittist" and an advocate for Taiwan independence. Although Lai has previously expressed support for independence, he has attempted to retract it. However, China does not forget or forgive such actions. Political experts predict that Beijing will increase its pressure on Lai as he takes office later this month.

In an effort to establish the "new normal," China has recently made changes to its airspace rules. The country is almost finished building a new airport in Xiamen, Fujian Province, just 6.2 miles away from the island of Kinmen, which has remained under the control of the Republic of China (ROC) since 1949.

The flight path near Kinmen Airport was too close for Taiwan's comfort in 2015, prompting both sides to work out a deal. However, in February 2019, Beijing unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, announcing that new air routes would commence on May 16 to "optimize airspace" in the area.

Few China watchers think China picked the day arbitrarily, says Karalekas.

"Beijing has a history of testing new leaders of enemy states. They tested Bush with the EP-3E spy plane incident. They tested Naoto Kan with the Senkaku boat collision. We can expect them to test Lai by creating a mini-crisis around the time he takes office on May 20."

Eric Hsu, who resides in Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern Taiwan, and has experience in historical restoration and hosts a podcast on Taiwan history, stated to Planet Chronicle Digital that he believes China is intensifying its threats.

He claims to be concerned not only with military hardware but also with "brainwashing videos and moves by KOLs," referring to internet influencers.

Hsu believes that local opposition parties, viewed as more friendly to Beijing, are largely responsible for the current domestic political situation in Taiwan. He stated that Taiwan faces not only an enemy at the gate but also enemies within. While South Taiwan is a DPP stronghold, not everyone in the south agrees that the opposition parties are the problem.

Ms. Lin, a self-employed businessperson and mother residing in Kaohsiung, believes the DPP has not been genuine in its efforts to engage with China.

"According to Lin, Taiwan has had eight years and will receive at least four more, but what the country requires are courageous leaders who are willing to explore innovative solutions. Lin believes that the current DPP leadership does not exhibit these qualities."

The Kuomintang (KMT) claims to be "peace-friendly" rather than "China-friendly." Chinese leader Xi Jinping has met with KMT leader Ma Ying-jeou twice, first in Singapore in 2015 and then in Beijing in April 2021. During these meetings, the leaders chose to address each other informally as "Mr. Xi" and "Mr. Ma," ignoring their official titles.

Some experts view favorably the meetings between the KMT and China, believing that any dialogue is beneficial and allows China to maintain its policy of mandatory "reunification." However, others argue that Ma's meetings are too close to accepting the idea that Taiwan is part of China.

The DPP is satisfied with the current situation, including maintaining Taiwan's official name as the Republic of China. On the other hand, the KMT supports negotiations with Beijing under the "consensus" idea that both sides are "China," but each side has the freedom to interpret what "one China" means.

Michael Turton, a central Taiwan-based newspaper columnist and political commentator, stated on Planet Chronicle Digital that the KMT's thinking is flawed because "Xi's ultimate objective is to completely dominate Taiwan, just like Hong Kong. Two of China's diplomats abroad have already made it clear that Taiwanese who oppose Beijing's rule will be sent to concentration camps. Given this objective, how can there ever be a dialogue with mutual respect?"