Taiwan faces a 'choice between war and peace' as it prepares to elect a new president amid rising tensions with China.

Taiwan will hold a presidential election on January 13, with Beijing and Washington closely monitoring the situation as tensions rise.

According to Planet Chronicle Digital, Professor Huang Kwei-bo of Taipei's National Cheng Chi University stated that the potential winner of the current situation could further solidify moves towards de jure Taiwan independence. This would greatly increase the likelihood of a war between the two sides, with the U.S. almost certainly becoming involved, either actively or reluctantly.

The current Vice President of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), William Lai, is the frontrunner, despite being loathed by Beijing. The DPP, once pro-Taiwan independence, has softened its stance under President Tsai Ing-wen. A new DPP policy emerged under Tsai, who told the BBC after her re-election in 2020 that Taiwan is already an independent country and calls itself the Republic of China (Taiwan).

Lai has promised to follow Tsai's lead if elected and maintain the status quo, but this is not enough for Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). They demand complete capitulation, even though they have "generously" offered Taiwan the same deal as Hong Kong, the "one country, two systems" policy.

In 1997, Hong Kong was guaranteed 50 years of uninterrupted freedoms as a British colony, but in 2020, China reneged on the promise, enacted a strict National Security Law, and swiftly prosecuted individuals in the pro-democracy movement for new offenses with severe penalties, including life imprisonment.

The main rival of Lai for the presidency of Taiwan is New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang or Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Hou, 66, was previously the island's top police officer and currently serves as the mayor of Taiwan's largest city.

The "1992 Consensus," which states that there is only one China but allows each side to interpret its meaning, is accepted by Ho Yu-ih and the KMT, while the DPP rejects it and it has never been put to a public vote or enacted into law.

In recent years, President Tsai and her party have minimized the use of the formal name, Republic of China, and instead promote the name "Taiwan." The DPP accepts the ROC as the island's official title but uses "Taiwan" whenever possible. China refuses to talk to DPP representatives, claiming they are "separatists," and uses pejoratives such as "bombastically fond of using." On the other hand, the KMT denies being "pro-China," while the DPP denies being "anti-China." Beijing sees a KMT win as the "lesser of two evils."

The DPP and other major parties in Taiwan agree that Taiwan has never been a part of the People's Republic of China and reject PRC claims of sovereignty over the island. However, they disagree on the way forward. The DPP is pushing for closer official links with the U.S. and her democratic allies, and promoting the use of Taiwan in the name of overseas representative offices that are de facto embassies.

The KMT would restore the ROC's prominence, encourage Chinese tourists to return to Taiwan, allow Chinese companies to enter sectors of Taiwan's economy that are currently off-limits, and adopt a more conciliatory approach to Beijing.

The KMT's attempt to implement pro-China policies during their previous term in office is not supported by most people in Taiwan. As a DPP city councilperson representing several districts in Kaohsiung, Cherry Tang emphasized the importance of preventing the KMT from regaining power, as their short-term gains often come at the expense of Taiwan's long-term survivability as a free and democratic country.

Although I share KMT friends and occasionally work with KMT colleagues, I strongly oppose many of their policies. I urge the Taiwanese people to continue supporting the DPP as we work towards promoting a pro-Taiwan agenda in the future.

The KMT claims that voting for them will improve communication and trade ties with China. Despite the DPP being the ruling party in 2022, Taiwan-China trade was valued at $205 billion. However, China has recently warned that a 2024 DPP win could negatively impact trade. Reuters reported Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, using religious language at a news briefing in Beijing on Dec. 27, stating, "If the DPP authorities stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position and refuse to repent, we support the relevant departments taking further measures."

Since Taiwan's first democratic presidential election in 1996, Beijing has made efforts to influence Taiwanese elections, with China conducting pre-election "missile tests" that led then-President Clinton to send the U.S. Seventh Fleet into the area.

Beijing's ability to make good on its threats has made them more ominous, as seen on Dec. 26, 2023, when Xi reiterated the CCP's commitment to reunifying Taiwan with China. He stated, "The complete reunification of our motherland is an overall trend, a righteous cause, and the common aspiration of the people. Our motherland must be reunified, and it will surely be reunified. We firmly oppose anyone using any means to separate Taiwan from China."

Beijing's supreme leader spoke from the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, but his remarks were not limited to a domestic audience. Dean Karalekas, editor-at-large of Strategic Vision, an English-language security journal published in Taiwan, told Planet Chronicle Digital that while the PRC likes to saber-rattle, their bark is not without a potential bite. "Certain camps in this campaign have framed the election as being a choice between war and peace, and while that might sound like the usual election-year fear-mongering, Beijing has been tacitly undertaking to make good on that claim," Karalekas said.

Chiang, a resident of Kaohsiung and owner of a jade jewelry business, says she wants peace rather than a change in the ruling party. Her business suffered since the massive numbers of Chinese tourists stopped coming to Taiwan around the time DPP's President Tsai took office. Chiang told Fox New Digital, "All I want is peace. Yes, it would be nice for my business if more Chinese tourists came, but more important is peace. My only son is 15. I don't want him, or any other young people, to have to go to war or experience the hardships that my father and my grandfather endured because of military conflicts."

William Lai, the DPP candidate, leads in the polls but not by a significant margin. During a recent campaign speech, Lai questioned the KMT's 104-year-old anti-Communist legacy and argued that their "one China" stance is not only divisive but also poses a threat to Taiwan's sovereignty. On the other hand, opposition leader Hou claims that the DPP and Lai are the ones who are misrepresenting his positions on China and that they are the real threat to peace.

On New Year's Eve, the Chinese leader, who holds more power than any emperor in history, spoke to the communist party about the "Taiwan question." Xi's comments were similar to previous statements, stating that the unification of China is inevitable and that both sides of the Taiwan Strait should work together to achieve the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Taiwan's outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, rejected Xi Jinping's "common sense" remarks in a lengthy speech, reiterating that only the Taiwanese people, through democratic processes, have the right to decide Taiwan's future. Tsai expressed confidence in the people of Taiwan's ability to resist cognitive warfare and manipulation from Beijing.

The winner of the election will still face a hostile China, as Beijing may prefer the KMT, but the KMT is not open to any formula that gives Beijing control over Taiwan.

The Chinese Communist Party's manufactured "tensions" towards Taiwan will continue to make it an irritant to Beijing and a potential global conflict flashpoint in 2024 and beyond, despite the actions of Taiwan's citizens.

The third candidate in the presidential race is former Taipei City mayor Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People's Party, who is currently trailing with approximately 20%. The number of Ko's supporters who remain loyal to him and those who switch to one of the leading candidates could be a deciding factor in the outcome of the race. The results of the presidential election will be announced on January 13th.