Police allege Bolsonaro attempted to stage a coup to maintain power in Brazil.

In late November, Brazil's Federal Police accused Jair Bolsonaro and 36 others of planning a coup to maintain his presidency. The agency's 884-page report detailed a multi-step scheme, supported by evidence and testimony.

The plan involved systematically eroding trust in the electoral system, creating a legal-sounding decree to legitimize the plot, pressuring high-ranking military officials to support it, and inciting a riot in the capital.

Paulo Gonet, the Prosecutor-General, will now decide whether to charge the accused parties, dismiss the investigation, or request additional testimony to understand each person's role in the alleged plot before determining who will be tried on which charges. Bolsonaro and his main allies have denied any wrongdoing or involvement and accused the authorities of political persecution.

The report outlines the plan's essential components and their supposed connections.

Sowing doubt about Brazil’s voting system

Efforts to spread false information about Brazil's electronic voting system intensified in 2022 as Bolsonaro prepared for his reelection, according to police allegations.

According to the police, thousands of social media accounts linked to pro-Bolsonaro propaganda, as well as other prominent right-wing influencers and politicians, spread propaganda claiming that the voting system could be tampered with. Additionally, Bolsonaro openly expressed admiration for Brazil's military dictatorship (1964-1985), which he claimed saved the country from communism.

Bolsonaro's impending election defeat was aided by the narrative, which led to tens of thousands of supporters attending street demonstrations and many setting up camp outside military barracks and headquarters to pressure leaders.

In a televised meeting at the presidential palace three months before the election, Bolsonaro discussed supposed weaknesses in the voting system but failed to provide any evidence.

In 2022, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party disputed the election results, alleging that voting machines from certain years could have facilitated fraud. However, the electoral court promptly rejected these claims.

The report states that false studies on the vulnerabilities of electronic voting machines were spread through the Liberal Party in an attempt to establish a factual basis for a presidential decree that would initiate a coup.

A draft decree to set the coup in motion

In January 2023, Brazilian police discovered a draft decree in the residence of Anderson Torres, Bolsonaro's former justice minister. This was one of several versions created either at the far-right leader's request or with his knowledge, according to police. On December 7, Bolsonaro presented the unsigned document to the commanders of the three divisions of the armed forces, seeking their support.

Bolsonaro and his allies allegedly aimed to establish a committee to investigate fraud and crimes in the October 2022 election, with the ultimate goal of suspending the powers of the top electoral court and potentially holding a new election.

According to witnesses who spoke to investigators, the navy's commander was prepared to follow the decree, but the army and air force leaders opposed any plan that would delay Lula's inauguration. As a result, the plan did not proceed.

Evidence that the former president presented the draft to military leaders and supported different versions of the document is very damaging, according to many legal experts.

"Luiz Henrique Machado, a law professor at the IDP university in Brasilia, stated that the goal was to unfairly influence elections. He emphasized that in Brazil, the electoral prosecutors' office and the top electoral court have the final say on electoral legislation."

In an interview with UOL published on Thursday, Bolsonaro revealed that he discussed with military leaders measures such as declaring a state of emergency and suspending the rule of law for the public good. He stated that these options are constitutional, so there is nothing wrong with evaluating them.

Bolsonaro stated on Monday in Brasilia that what was being said was absurd, and he clarified that there had never been any discussion of a coup on his part.

Plan to assassinate the president-elect

In November 2022, four military special operations officers and a federal police officer were arrested in Brazil for allegedly plotting to assassinate Lula, Geraldo Alckmin, and Alexandre de Moraes. The police report, which was later unsealed, named the arrested men as suspects.

The assassination plan aimed to eliminate all other candidates except Bolsonaro's ticket in the 2022 runoff, according to police. Meanwhile, de Moraes, who led a five-year investigation into fake news and threats against Supreme Court justices, has barred some far-right allies and supporters from social media and imprisoned them. In early 2023, de Moraes presided over the nation's top electoral court and declared Bolsonaro ineligible for office until 2030 due to abuse of power related to a meeting he convened with foreign ambassadors to spread lies about the voting system.

Investigators claim that retired General Walter Braga Netto, who is Bolsonaro's 2022 running mate and former defense minister, approved the assassination plan at a meeting with the plotters inside his home. The Federal Police also depict him as one of the leaders of the plot and involved in pressuring military leaders to support the coup.

On Tuesday, Braga Netto declared that he never planned a coup. He stated that the documents seized from one of his aides, including "writings, drafts, and media reports," were "preparatory material to answer media requests and to prepare for testimony in congressional hearings."

No evidence of an assassination attempt on Lula or Alckmin was found in the police report, but messages and documents revealed that the plotters were tracking de Moraes.

Evidence shows that retired Brig. Gen. Mário Fernandes, who was arrested and served as interim general secretary of the presidency, visited protest camps outside military installations, including the army headquarters in Brasilia, and provided instructions and financial support to the protesters.

Jan. 8 uprising

The Jan. 8, 2023 riot in which supporters of former President Bolsonaro, many of whom had been camped outside army headquarters for months, ransacked the Supreme Court, Congress, and presidential palace in Brasilia has linked Bolsonaro and some of his top ministers to the incident.

The protesters had pleaded for the military to prevent the leftist leader from taking office, and their uprising, which occurred after Lula was sworn in, was an attempt to force military intervention and remove the new president, according to police.

The report mentions the riot as one of several actions taken to persuade the army commander to join the coup d'état. Additionally, it is reported that Brig. Gen. Fernandes communicated with Gen. Marco Antônio Freire Gomes in November 2022 to discuss the need for a "triggering event" for a coup.

The report's evidence of a connection between the riot and a broader plot is tenuous, as defendants, including Bolsonaro, have argued that it was an isolated event.

The alleged coup plotters had contacts with individuals outside military barracks on January 8th, but the extent to which this contact led to planning, coordination, and the subsequent takeover of public buildings is still up for debate. This topic will be discussed and more evidence will be collected during the process.

Lula's inauguration on Jan. 1, 2023 was preceded by Bolsonaro's departure to the United States, where he remained for three months. The police report claims that he avoided possible imprisonment related to the coup plot and waited for the aftermath of the uprising.