In 2024, the war in Ukraine underwent a significant shift.

With the third year of war in Ukraine coming to a close and the anniversary date of Feb. 24, 2025, approaching, new battle lines have been established after Russia made advances in the east and Kyiv opened a new battlefront in Russia.

In 2024, the war that had already affected Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, with a cost of $278 billion in aid for Ukraine, including $87 billion from Washington, spread to Asia as geopolitical rivalries in the Indo-Pacific played out through Ukraine.

SETTING THE TONE

The year 2024 commenced with a contentious debate in Congress regarding the provision of additional military aid to Ukraine, which brought to light significant divisions within the Republican Party and Ukraine's heavy dependence on Washington's military assistance.

The monthslong debate, which ended in April, had significant consequences for Ukraine's ability to defend against Moscow's missiles and counter Russian aggression. Despite the Kremlin's ability to throw large numbers of men into its war machine, Russia was unable to make any major advances in 2023.

But 2024 politics in the U.S. changed the reality of war for Ukraine.

The halted supplies in Ukraine's east, particularly in Donetsk, intensified frustration from Kyiv, NATO allies, and those who believed defending Ukraine was in the U.S.'s security interest. This led to increased attention on the Biden administration's strike bans on U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, which the president eventually lifted in November.

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, uncertainty increased about what a second Trump administration would mean for Kyiv, a question that has already had geopolitical consequences.

COST OF WAR

In April 2023, the House approved a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine, increasing U.S. financial pledges to $183 billion since the start of Russia's invasion in 2022. The package aimed to accelerate the delivery of military equipment and supplies, which, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, had decreased to 10% of the previous year's amount.

The European Union commenced membership talks with Ukraine in June, as Kyiv had fulfilled the necessary conditions to establish an economic and political partnership through tackling corruption, controlling political lobbying, enhancing transparency regarding officials' wealth, and safeguarding the rights of national minorities.

As the July NATO Summit in Washington, D.C. approached, some members increased their pressure on the Biden administration and other allies, including the U.K. and Germany, to lift any and all strike restrictions on Ukraine, which prevented Kyiv from targeting military and weapons depots deep within Russia, a move that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly emphasized was necessary to stop Russia's missile and drone attacks.

The federal government submitted a plan to the State Duma in September, requesting $183 billion for national security and defense in 2025, which is 41% of its annual budget, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The 13.5 trillion ruble plan ($124 million) that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off on in early December was reduced from its original figure. It accounts for 32.5% of Russia's 2025 budget, according to the Associated Press.

In October, the G-7 agreed on a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, and on Christmas Eve, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv had received its first $1 billion from the U.S.

The US has agreed to provide Kyiv with $20 billion in frozen asset profits for military and reconstruction aid until 2025.

During his final days in office, President Biden has pledged to expedite the delivery of military aid to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

ESCALATION

In 2024, Moscow intensified its aerial attacks on towns and cities in eastern Ukraine, targeting them ahead of its infantry advances, even if it meant the complete destruction of urban areas.

According to data from the Institute for the Study of War, there was more battlefield movement in 2024 than in 2023, with the majority of this activity occurring in the second half of the year. This came at a heavy cost for Russia.

In November, Russia experienced its highest battlefield losses with 45,720 casualties, surpassing the previous month's 42,000, and also lost an estimated $3 billion worth of military equipment, as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Since the war began, Moscow has set the record for the greatest number of drone strikes against Ukraine in a single campaign twice, with 145 drones fired overnight on Nov. 9 and 188 strikes beginning the night of Nov. 25.

In May 2023, Russia launched a new front in Kharkiv, a region that Ukraine had liberated in 2022, but the Kremlin's renewed offensive largely failed.

In August, Ukraine surprised the world by invading Russia's Kursk region. The move aimed to shift forces away from eastern Ukraine and provide leverage for peace negotiations.

Since World War II, the campaign was the largest attack on Russia, and by mid-October, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea had deployed troops to Russia, with approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers believed to be fighting Ukraine in Kursk, marking the first foreign nation to send in troops since the war began.

Iran has been providing Russia with Shahed drones for years, and in September, the U.S. accused Iran of supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles.

While Ukraine is estimated to have lost 40% of the land it initially seized in Russia, North Korea is also reported to have endured heavy losses, with Zelenskyy claiming this week that 3,000 North Korean troops had been killed in the fighting while others face extreme logistical shortages, including access to clean water, the Associated Press reported.

China has been accused of secretly providing military support to Russia through the supply of microelectronics and semiconductors, among other items.

YEAR END

The involvement of North Korea in Russia's war has intensified the divisions in the Indo-Pacific region, which have been growing due to Chinese aggression and Pyongyang's actions. This has become a significant issue as Japan and South Korea have become more aligned with Western powers and view the Russia-North Korea alliance as a threat, leading to the largest war in Europe since World War II.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a possible escalation of non-lethal aid by South Korea, which is considering providing missiles. Japan has already sent $3 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine on Christmas Day, adding to the $12 billion it has previously provided. Additionally, Japan has pledged to support Ukraine's energy sector, which Russia frequently targets.

On Christmas Day, Russia once again solidified its primary winter strategy by attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure, firing 184 drones and missiles across the country. This resulted in mass blackouts amid freezing temperatures in multiple regions, including Kharkiv in the north, the central Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava areas, as well as Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine.

Zelenskyy condemned the attacks as "inhumane."

On the campaign trail, President Trump stated that he would put an end to the war prior to taking office. However, following his election victory, his certainty in achieving this goal seems to have wavered.

He stated at his first press conference this month, after being re-elected, "Our goal is to end the war in Ukraine, which is a terrible and nasty conflict. We have made some progress, but it is a challenging task."

Trump intends to facilitate a peace agreement between Putin and Zelenskyy, despite significant obstacles, including Putin's opposition to Kyiv's membership in NATO.

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, rejected Trump's call for a ceasefire and stated that it would lead to nowhere, implying that Trump may encounter difficulties in diplomacy.