How will President-elect Donald Trump's victory impact the US during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

The potential GOP strategy in Ukraine is being debated, with some believing that Trump will adopt a tougher stance while others worry that he may abandon Kyiv.

How will President-elect Donald Trump's victory impact the US during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
How will President-elect Donald Trump's victory impact the US during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

The re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has caused geopolitical shock waves, with the international community eager to observe how his administration will handle U.S. ties abroad, particularly in relation to Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Trump and Vance campaigned against Biden's support for Ukraine after Russia's 2022 invasion, with Trump promising to end the war before taking office.

But Trump has yet to detail how he will do this.

JD Vance and Donald Trump
Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance of Ohio introduces presidential nominee Donald Trump during a rally in St. Cloud, Minn., on July 27, 2024. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

This year, Vance gained notoriety when he proposed that the war's conclusion could be achieved by Ukraine surrendering the land Russia has seized and establishing a demilitarized zone, a suggestion that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flatly rejected.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that several advisers close to the president-elect are now promoting Vance's contentious proposals from the campaign trail.

Some advisers are urging Trump to push Kyiv to accept terms that would establish an 800-mile-long demilitarized zone and allow Russia to retain the land it has unlawfully seized, which amounts to approximately 20% of Ukraine. However, it is not reported that Trump has signed off on any specific steps yet.

The suggestion is that Kyiv should refrain from pursuing NATO membership for 20 years, which some argue is a concession to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Sunday, a Washington Post report stated that Trump had spoken with Putin, and during the conversation, the president-elect urged the Russian leader not to intensify the conflict. However, Trump's transition team refused to verify or deny the phone call.

This year, Zelenskyy cautioned that giving in to Russia's demands for Ukraine to surrender land and its NATO aspirations would only intensify security issues for Washington and its European partners.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the family photo session at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam November 11, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva - RC1B1EDB0E40
Then-President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk at the APEC Summit in Danang, Vietnam, on Nov. 11, 2017. (REUTERS/Jorge Silva)

"If this were a plan, then America is on the brink of global conflict, according to Zelenskyy. This would mean that whoever seized control of territory, regardless of their rightful ownership, is the one in charge, as stated by Zelenskyy."

Officials must cease treating Ukraine as the aggressor state, according to former CIA Moscow station chief Dan Hoffman, who spoke to Planet Chronicle Digital.

""Inducing Putin to come to the table is the question, not pushing Ukraine to make a deal," he said."

Taking things away from Ukraine will diminish any leverage you believe you possess, according to Hoffman.

The security expert stated that the U.S. possesses the greatest advantage by providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry and enabling Kyiv to utilize the weapons without limitations on targeting within Russia.

Former CIA Moscow station chief Dan Hoffman says the greatest leverage the U.S. has is its ability to give Ukraine sophisticated weaponry and to allow Kyiv to use the weaponry without restrictions on hitting targets inside Russia.
Former CIA Moscow station chief Dan Hoffman says the greatest leverage the U.S. has is its ability to give Ukraine sophisticated weaponry and to allow Kyiv to use the weaponry without restrictions on hitting targets inside Russia. (Gian Marco Benedetto/Anadolu via Getty Images/File)

Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine during the Trump administration, stated in an October interview with Germany's DW that he believes Trump will pressure Putin to end the war when he returns to the White House. He added that Trump would likely go further in aiding Kyiv than the Biden administration.

He reportedly stated to Ukrainians, "This lend-lease package allows you to borrow as much money as you need, with no restrictions on how you use it, as long as you purchase American equipment."

Planet Chronicle Digital did not receive a response from Volker regarding whether he still believes Trump will adopt this approach.

While some conservatives believe that Trump may increase support for Ukraine to end the war by lifting restrictions on long-range weapons use, others are uncertain due to Trump's campaign trail remarks suggesting he would halt Washington's aid.

Sources in the NATO alliance, Ukraine, and Republicans on Capitol Hill have expressed concern to Planet Chronicle Digital about the uncertainty surrounding Trump's stance on Russia's war in Ukraine, but they were hesitant to speak out due to Trump's history of attacking those who disagree with him.

In Congress, there is a significant disagreement among Republicans about providing weapons to Ukraine, with some arguing it poses a threat to U.S. security due to China's alliance with Russia, while others see it as crucial to maintaining U.S. security by weakening Russia.

Trump Zelenskyy New York
Former President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower, Sept. 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

According to a statement to Planet Chronicle Digital, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul expressed confidence that President Trump would once again enhance American power and stability globally, as he did during his initial term in office.

""President Trump's actions, such as lifting the arms embargo on Ukraine, heavily sanctioning Russia, enhancing the U.S. military presence in Europe, and pushing NATO allies to invest more in their own defense, will lead to the end of Putin's regime of terror, according to McCaul," he stated."

Several conservative lawmakers who have supported U.S. aid for Ukraine did not respond to Planet Chronicle Digital's inquiries regarding the growing concern that the proposals being presented to Trump do not include better armament for Kyiv.

Several contacts Planet Chronicle Digital spoke with stated that due to Trump's ambiguous stance on the U.S.'s role in the Russia-Ukraine war and the absence of a fully staffed Cabinet, it is premature to predict Washington's policy in Ukraine.

An official who worked in the previous Trump administration believes that the actions Trump took while in office are the best indicator of how the next president will handle Russia.

Considering three factors is necessary: Trump's past policies, his public statements, and his general approach to major challenges like this. Richard Goldberg, who served on the White House National Security Council during the Trump administration and is now a senior adviser to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated this to Planet Chronicle Digital.

Zelenskyy Trump New York
Former President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower, Sept. 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

"Trump was not a Russia appeaser during his first term, he stated. However, he now wants the war to end, but this does not mean that Ukraine should remain vulnerable and Putin should feel emboldened to invade another country."

"He has largely remained vague on what an end state might look like, which is intentional," he stated. "Putin is aware that Trump possesses numerous options to influence Ukraine and exert pressure on Moscow."

According to Goldberg, Trump's optimal strategy is to maintain secrecy and make Putin feel uncomfortable before any discussions take place.

by Caitlin McFall

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