Experts say the fall of Syria's Bashar Assad would be a strategic blow to Iran and Russia.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has resulted in significant consequences throughout the region and beyond, marking a significant turning point after nearly 14 years of civil war. With Assad's rule supported by Russia and Iran, the end of his rule has left these countries struggling to manage the fallout. The implications of this event for these two powers, as well as for the broader regional and global landscape, are profound.

Russia's presence in Syria was not solely focused on supporting Assad, according to experts. Rather, Moscow aimed to establish a presence in the Middle East through its Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval facility, which served as crucial tools for exerting influence. With Assad's removal, Russia's assets in Syria are now at risk.

Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and author of "Putin's Playbook," highlighted the importance of Syria as a key theater in the broader proxy conflict between Russia and the U.S. She emphasized that the loss of Assad would represent a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them critical bases in the Middle East and further stretching their military resources as they continue fighting in Ukraine.

Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, characterized the fallout as, "Russia has been exposed as a power that promises much but delivers little. They entered Syria with great aspirations, but aside from aiding Assad's survival through joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, they accomplished little. Post-war reconstruction never commenced, and with Russia now concentrating on Ukraine, Syria was relegated to a secondary priority. Now, Russia has deserted Assad, revealing itself as an untrustworthy ally."

Moscow's allies receive a message from this failure in the Middle East, where Russia now appears weaker compared to the United States. Syrians are astonished that Moscow abandoned "Baby Assad" while the U.S. demonstrated strength by supporting Israel.

The fall of Assad has shifted the balance of power in the U.S.- Russia proxy war, as Koffler explained. Before Assad's fall, President Trump reportedly called Putin to de-escalate tensions, but instead, Putin escalated his nuclear doctrine, signaling a refusal to back down. Now that Assad, one of Putin's key allies, has lost Syria, Trump may have newfound leverage over Putin. Losing Syria undermines Russia's influence in the region and strains its already overstretched resources. This could open a path for Trump to negotiate the end of the war in Ukraine from a stronger position, leveraging Putin's setbacks in Syria.

IRAN

The collapse of Assad's regime in Syria poses a significant threat to Iran's long-term regional strategy, as Syria was a vital link in Tehran's "Axis of Resistance," connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and facilitating the smuggling of weapons across the region through a corridor extending from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon.

"Svetlova stated that the current situation is a unique and significant moment in history. The "Ring of Fire" constructed by Qassem Soleimani, a masterpiece of Iranian engineering, has been destroyed. If Soleimani were still alive, he would be devastated to witness the collapse of his life's work."

The decline of Hezbollah's strength during its conflict with Israel intensified Assad's vulnerability, as the regime lacked crucial support on the ground. Although Hezbollah had been a vital ally to Assad's army during the civil war, its heavy losses at the hands of Israeli forces reduced its ability to provide adequate assistance. Meanwhile, Iran chose not to send additional troops to support Assad.

An Iranian journalist, speaking anonymously to Planet Chronicle Digital from Iran, revealed the internal reaction in Iran. "The majority of Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard funneled resources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, draining the Iranian people’s wealth. Now, with Assad gone, there is hope that Iran’s oppressive influence in the region will weaken. This is a moment of joy for those who have long opposed the regime’s policies."

"An Iranian dissident who spoke anonymously to Planet Chronicle Digital from the country stated that the Iranian people and the regime have vastly different perspectives. While the regime has largely remained neutral on Assad's downfall, likely due to internal weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian people are celebrating. There is a wave of hope and joy spreading across social media, fueled by the idea that revolutions in countries aligned with the Islamic Republic - past or present - could spark a domino effect. For many, Assad's collapse represents the weakening of the resistance axis and a glimmer of possibility for change within Iran itself."

The fall of Assad presents both opportunities and risks in the Middle East, as evidenced by the surprise attack on his forces by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi-jihadist organization led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani. HTS, which has evolved from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, remains designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other nations.

"What will happen when the rebels take power?" Koffler cautioned. "The rebels aren't good people - they're just the same extremists we've seen before. While they may appear on Western media wearing a green T-shirt and giving polished interviews, the reality is different. Removing one dictator often leads to even worse outcomes, as we saw in Iraq and Libya."

Avner Golov, a former senior director of Israel's National Security Council and vice president at Mind Israel, thinks there is a positive aspect for both the U.S. and Israel.

"The fall of Assad's regime highlights the shortcomings of Russia and Iran as regional powers. At the same time, the US has demonstrated its might by supporting Israel and choosing the victorious side. This presents a vital chance for Washington to utilize its influence and form an alliance with moderate Arab states - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt - along with Israel, to confront both Sunni and Shia Islamist forces. This coalition could serve as a stabilizing force in the region and counter the increasing impact of extremist groups."

Beijing has been largely absent in the Middle East conflicts, focusing instead on its global economic goals. In contrast, Russia has proven itself unreliable in Syria, retreating while the U.S. supported its allies. This presents a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its position in the Middle East amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.