Biden journeys to Africa, facing criticism over unfulfilled promises as China's influence grows.

President Biden's visit to Angola this week is seen as an attempt to create a legacy in Africa, but analysts warn that China's decade-long investment in the continent could undermine the Biden administration's goals of bringing positive memories of his time in the White House.

"According to analyst Cameron Hudson, Biden's legacy in Africa is likely to be characterized as "over-promised and under-delivered." Hudson, who served as director of African affairs at the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration and is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Affairs, stated that Biden had set high expectations for revamping relations with the continent, but his approach and results have not significantly differed from any of his predecessors."

Cobus van Staden, an African analyst and managing editor of the China-Global South Project, stated that the Biden administration's legacy in Africa is somewhat mixed.

Biden's administration differed from the first Trump term in enhancing the presentation and language of U.S. involvement, but it is uncertain how many of the promised projects will be accomplished. Africa was a part of Biden's strategy of forming alliances as a reaction to increasing Chinese influence. During his term, critical minerals were identified as a crucial U.S. strategic priority. Nevertheless, this has not resulted in significant benefits for Africa.

Dr. Frances Brown, special assistant to the president and senior director for African affairs at the National Security Council, defended the U.S. investment in Africa during a State Department briefing on Biden's Angola trip. She pointed out that at the 2022 African leaders' summit, the U.S. committed to investing $55 billion in Africa over three years. Two years later, the U.S. had already spent more than 80% of that commitment.

Since the Africa Leaders Summit, the Biden administration has had over 20 Cabinet-level and senior officials visit the continent. The senior official stated, "We're proud of our record on this front."

Last week, Brown stated that "billions of dollars have been mobilized" for the Lobito Rail Corridor, a key component of Biden's Angola visit and his legacy, and considered one of his "signature initiatives."

The rail system will extend from the DRC to the port of Lobito in Angola, with the aim of transporting critical raw materials (CRMs) such as cobalt and lithium, which are essential for electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and reducing transit time from the current 45 days to under a week.

According to Dr. E.D. Wala Chabala's recent paper for the Africa Policy Research Institute, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the demand for nickel and cobalt will increase by 20 times, for graphite 25 times, and for lithium more than 40 times between 2020 and 2040.

The surge in demand for CRMs has sparked great interest in the Lobito Corridor, resulting in a competition for access. As the world's largest cobalt producer, the DRC has become the focal point of this competition, along with Zambia, which is associated with it.

China has already locked in the targeted materials (CRMs), and Asians are leaders in EV technology, as pointed out by Chabala.

China is already leading in building supply chains for essential metals and minerals on the African continent, and is also taking over the management of the TAZARA railway line, which connects central Zambia to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam.

"The Lobito Corridor development may be delayed, as there is a shorter route of 500 km to the east between Lubumbashi and Dar es Salaam."

According to Chabala, the EU and the U.S. are not currently leaders in EV technology. Almost 90% of cell component manufacturing, the most significant step in the battery value chain, is undertaken in Asia.

The viability of the rail corridor is dependent on external factors, such as competition from the TAZARA rail line between Zambia and Tanzania, which will be upgraded by Chinese companies in the near future. There may also be pressure from the African side to connect the two lines, as this would fulfill a long-standing goal to link the Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts.

"The U.S. must obtain access to critical minerals in Africa to remain competitive in high-tech manufacturing, as many of these minerals are essential components, according to Hudson. He emphasized that the U.S. cannot allow China to dominate this sector and urged efforts to reclaim influence."

"Africans desire diversity in their economic partnerships, which presents an opportunity to do so. Similarly, countries are cautious about allowing China to dominate the market on critical minerals, while also being concerned about being overly dependent on Chinese interests."

The Lobito project serves as a proof of concept that the US should undertake large-scale commercial infrastructure projects like China has been doing in Africa for decades. This project acknowledges the call from African leaders for a relationship based on "trade not aid."

According to Chabala, another obstacle to U.S. interests is that the Chinese own 80% of the largest cobalt producer in Congo and are heavily involved in the EV battery value chain, with most of the value chain activities taking place in Asia. Additionally, they are currently the world's leading producer of EVs, with BYD being the top Chinese auto manufacturer.

The long-term strategy of the EU and U.S. should be to invest and establish strong counterweight economies, so that the impact and consequences of the Chinese economic dynamics are counterbalanced. The African continent has a population of 1.4 billion people, with 60% of the population being under the age of 24, and a landmass of more than 30 million square kilometers (over 11 million square miles).

"The African continent has an unfathomable potential for establishing industries, with a population that is double that of the EU and U.S., and a landmass that is almost double theirs. The quantities of materials on the continent and the potential they represent for the global economy are astounding. This represents an opportunity for EU and U.S. businesses to lock in a future market and counterweight the Chinese economy. It is mind-boggling that the EU and U.S. have not pursued this strategy decades ago."

On the continent, Chinese actors account for less than 10% of all mining activities, leaving room for greater involvement from various stakeholders, as long as it occurs on African terms, according to Van Staden.

President-elect Trump needs to treat Africans as equal partners, avoid talking down to them, and recognize their choices in order to attract them to choose us. Pressure alone will not be enough to make Africa choose us.