An expert claims that China's true objective behind encircling Taiwan was to deceive the US into staying out of the conflict.

Despite what many media outlets have claimed, China's 13-hour military exercise in Taiwan on October 14th, involving a record number of planes, an aircraft carrier, and both Navy and Coast Guard vessels, was not solely a response to President William Lai's comments made since taking office in May.

"Elizabeth Freund Larus, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global China Hub, stated that China had planned the military exercises in advance and would have carried them out regardless of Lai's comments. The exercises were intended to wear down Taiwan's military hardware and personnel, with the ultimate goal of threatening Taiwan's security and changing the status quo of a Taiwan separate from China."

From Beijing's tactical standpoint, all those reasons would justify the military maneuvers. However, Dr. Chang Ching, a senior research fellow with the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies and a Navy veteran, told Planet Chronicle Digital that people are missing the big picture. Chang pointed to publicly available military logs from Japan that tracked both Russian and Chinese ships over several days before the 13-hour exercise.

On October 11, 2024 (Friday), at approximately 5 PM, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force confirmed the presence of six vessels (four Chinese and two Russian) in the waters approximately 400 km (approx 248 miles) northeast of Okinotorishima Island (Tokyo). Japanese press releases stated that they had been tracking both Chinese and Russian naval actions since late September.

According to Chang, the location of these ships at those times means they cannot have been plausibly connected to the short Taiwan blockade. He stated on Planet Chronicle Digital that "the real target is the United States." Chang explained that China was using an old Chinese strategy called "encircling the point/striking the reinforcement," which involved ambushing the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan. If China can convince the U.S. that intervening in any actions it chooses to take in the Taiwan Strait is not worth the risk, then Beijing wins.

Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, stated that the military drills by China were aimed at testing the United States' capacity to handle multiple crises at the same time in both the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.

The Chinese Navy, according to various measurements, is either second to the U.S., has surpassed the U.S., or is roughly equal. Despite its rankings, the Chinese navy is often viewed as inexperienced. However, analysts such as Chang, who has devoted his adult life to studying military strategy and threats, warn that underestimating China's navy can be dangerous.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies reports that approximately 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared to only about 25% of the U.S. Navy's vessels.

Unlike previous exercises, Joint Sword 2024B did not provide a 24-hour prior notification, specific latitude or longitude parameters, or an end date or time.

Although the mood on the streets of Taiwan during the encirclement was calm, with almost no one telling the media they felt scared or threatened, some are concerned that the nonchalance displayed by the Taiwanese people implies that they are beginning to accept that their government and military are powerless to stop China's incursions that inch closer each time, such as Joint Sword 2024B, which was pushed to within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan.

The Chinese Coast Guard, with its large fleet of well-equipped ships, including several 10,000-ton vessels armed with 76mm guns and capable of reaching speeds of 25 knots (28.7 MPH), also participated in Joint Sword 2024B.

An image was posted on the official China Coast Guard Weibo account, depicting a drill route around Taiwan in the shape of a heart, with the message "Hello my sweetheart! Our patrol is our way of loving you." Elizabeth Freund Larus described this move as "rather macabre," while Chang saw it as a "cynical reflection of their 'abusive relationship' mindset."

A recent poll revealed that 70% of Taiwanese people believed they would receive U.S. assistance in the event of a Chinese attack. However, the U.S. response to Joint Sword 2024B was perceived as lukewarm and unclear by some.

"The US is concerned by the PLA's military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, as stated by Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the State Department. The PRC's response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unjustified and increases the risk of escalation."

The Asia Pacific Media Hub of the State Department released a statement on Oct. 15, stating that they closely monitored the PLA exercise, JOINT SWORD 2024B, around Taiwan. The military pressure operation is considered irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.

The State Department's use of the word "disproportionate" to describe Taiwan's actions has left some Taiwanese questioning why such a response was necessary. With the presidential election just weeks away, all official comments from D.C. are expected to be closely scrutinized, making the State Department's comments even more perplexing.

Taiwan's democracies, including the United States, are being called upon to take concrete actions against China's efforts to change the status quo, militarize the Taiwan Strait, and undermine Taiwan's democracy.

Kitsch Liao, the Assistant Director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, stated that it is crucial for Taiwan to update its National Security Strategy, which was last revised in 2007, in order to serve as a guiding principle and to unite collective efforts towards maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.