Amid court ban, Bolsonaro's re-election hopes could receive a boost from Trump's victory.

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's former leader who is currently barred from running for public office until 2030 due to a ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, has found hope in President-elect Donald Trump's victory in November's election.

The court decision, dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics," resulted from allegations of power abuse and unsubstantiated attacks on the nation's electronic voting system.

Bolsonaro and his supporters are actively seeking ways to overturn the ruling, despite the prohibition. Trump is expected to provide legal challenges and political strategies to aid in this effort. Bolsonaro is also counting on Trump to pressure the Brazilian government to allow him to run for president in 2026.

According to Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, Trump's victory is not only beneficial for democracy in Brazil and the world, but also for global peace.

Lula, before the election, had expressed support for Kamala Harris and criticized Trump's administration as "Nazism in another form." However, after Trump's victory, Lula congratulated the president-elect and tried to downplay his earlier statement.

The leaders of the Workers Party, including Gleisi Hoffmann, Fernando Haddad, and Paulo Teixeira, have criticized the incoming Trump administration.

Trump's victory, according to Bolsonaro, will put the current administration in a difficult position.

"Lula and his team are unable to control Trump, so their only option is to align themselves with China in an attempt to destroy him. This leads to continued political polarization and debates that are far removed from the true concerns of the population, which seeks solutions for issues like healthcare, education, security, employment, and basic sanitation. This disconnect from ordinary citizens strongly resembles the reasons behind the Democratic Party’s defeat in the last American election – it’s almost a ‘déjà vu.’"

Lula and BRICS countries have discussed ways to combat the dominance of the dollar in global financial markets, but Bolsonaro believes that such a strategy will be counter-productive.

"Trump declared on social media that countries that adopt this stance will face a 100% tariff on their exports to the U.S. This conflict did not happen during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, whether under Trump or Biden. The situation will put significant pressure on Lula's business base, as many entrepreneurs have substantial trade relations with the U.S. and are often the largest donors to his electoral campaigns. Although they share some ideological views, these businesspeople prioritize economic pragmatism."

The group of countries known as the BRICS comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Bolsonaro sees his ideological alignment with Trump on freedom of speech as a crucial factor in his potential political comeback.

In March 2022, Brazil's Supreme Federal Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes suspended the messaging app Telegram, and in 2024, he ordered X to block accounts spreading false information. Elon Musk criticized these orders as censorship. The dispute escalated, resulting in fines and legal threats, leading to a temporary suspension of X's operations in Brazil. The platform resumed services after complying with court mandates.

In May 2024, hypothetical polls showed that Bolsonaro would receive 39% of the vote against current President Lula da Silva, who polled at 47%. However, experts believe these figures are speculative due to Bolsonaro's current ineligibility. Despite this, Bolsonaro's popularity has been increasing recently.

Historically, the Republican Party has maintained closer ties with right-leaning Brazilian leaders, such as President Bolsonaro, who shared similar conservative viewpoints. As a result, the relationship between some Republicans and Lula's administration has been characterized by limited direct engagement, primarily due to differing ideological stances and policy priorities.

Sandra Bronzina, a political analyst, stated on Planet Chronicle Digital that Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar had previously proposed a bill to deny visas to members of the Brazilian Supreme Court for abuse of power. Although the bill was not approved at the time, it could be revisited with the Republicans now having a majority. It is important to remember that Minister Alexandre de Moraes, a member of the Brazilian Supreme Court, had a direct confrontation with Elon Musk, even removing X from Brazil. Now, Elon Musk will be part of the Trump government.

The return of Trump with a resounding electoral win does not bode well for the Lula administration. In a short time, Lula's economic policies have been a disaster, the dollar has risen significantly, inflation has increased, the country's debt already exceeds 9 trillion reals, and all of this impacts the daily lives of voters. I believe that, just as in the US, where bad economic policies led to a missed opportunity for Trump, Brazilians are currently missing Bolsonaro and his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes.

While Bolsonaro has a substantial following and is determined to overturn his political ban, his prospects of being re-elected president are uncertain due to legal limitations.

Congressman Marcel van Hattem stated on Planet Chronicle Digital that the Supreme Court's decision to disqualify Jair Bolsonaro was unfair, but the right will be strengthened in Brazil since Donald Trump's victory gave the right new hope in 2026. The 2024 elections were favorable for right-wing candidates, and Lula's popularity is very low, which means that in 2026 the right's options are enormous.